That $40k price is just for the US. For the rest of the world prices are much lower, even in developed countries (the average EU car price is about $35k: https://www.statista.com/statistics/425095/eu-car-sales-aver...). And let's not get started with developing countries, where it's a lot more likely that the price is around $15k.
This is what EVs are fighting against. Not just against other new cars, but against used cars too.
Plus personally I've rarely convinced anyone to buy anything with TCO calculations. Maybe you've had more luck :-)
I think EVs are still a few years ago from real mass adoption. 2025 sounds a bit more realistic. I'd say that the second gen ones are the ones that will make it through (Tesla Model 3 2027 facelift, or whatever they'll call it, ID3/ID4 2028 facelift, etc.). Those will probably have access to well developed super charging networks and to 90-100k MWh batteries at a 25% lower price.
You've moved the goalposts from where you originally said EV's are "very expensive". "Very expensive" cannot mean less than the average price for a new car. You can argue more expensive than comparable quality or something but "very expensive" is wrong. As for used cars, I don't think there's enough data yet but I recall seeing an article where Teslas depreciated less than comparable ICE vehicles.
On the developing world front, in the last few months of the year the best selling EV in China cost $4,200.
> Plus personally I've rarely convinced anyone to buy anything with TCO calculations. Maybe you've had more luck :-)
The fuel costs ways less per mile, what don't you believe about that?
> I think EVs are still a few years ago from real mass adoption. 2025 sounds a bit more realistic.
This is what the projections I've read say as well, and battery prices will continue to decline, though not as steeply. That will be when the steepening of the adoption S curve happens.
> You've moved the goalposts from where you originally said EV's are "very expensive".
Very expensive for me, personally. I wouldn't pay the average US price of a car :-) Most of the world, including most Americans, seems to agree with me.
> As for used cars, I don't think there's enough data yet but I recall seeing an article where Teslas depreciated less than comparable ICE vehicles.
This is both good and bad. It's good, rationally, for TCO (but see my comment about TCO below), but it's bad because the second hand market price is higher, see my comment above :-)
> The fuel costs ways less per mile, what don't you believe about that?
I'm not saying I don't believe you, I'm saying that a big initial price is a much higher hurdle than you'd expect. People are not fully rational (otherwise the $9,99 psychological prices wouldn't work everywhere across the world) plus they don't fully/correctly factor in savings later. As they say: a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
On top of that, a lot of people buy used cars. Even in the rich US, used car sales dwarf sales of new cars: https://www.statista.com/statistics/183713/value-of-us-passe...
And as cars are a quickly depreciating asset, used cars are much cheaper on average:
> In 2019, the average selling price of used vehicles came to around 21,000 U.S. dollars
https://www.statista.com/statistics/274928/used-vehicle-aver...
This is what EVs are fighting against. Not just against other new cars, but against used cars too.
Plus personally I've rarely convinced anyone to buy anything with TCO calculations. Maybe you've had more luck :-)
I think EVs are still a few years ago from real mass adoption. 2025 sounds a bit more realistic. I'd say that the second gen ones are the ones that will make it through (Tesla Model 3 2027 facelift, or whatever they'll call it, ID3/ID4 2028 facelift, etc.). Those will probably have access to well developed super charging networks and to 90-100k MWh batteries at a 25% lower price.