Sure - save for the geophysical fact that we're not seeing just variation .. underlying the usual flux we are seeing a steady increase in heat energy trapped in the near sea | land layer.
This is an inevitable physical consequence of human activity steadily increasing the insulating properties of the atmosphere in a demonstrable and measurable way.
Sure, right now we're going up faster than our new normal rate of increase due to ENSO flux, and in a few years we'll see our rate of increase drop below the current rate as ENSO swings back (fingers crossed) .. but overall on a ten year rolling average we're seeing steady increases in average global temp. as a direct result of human activity (hence AGW) and it'll stay that way until we reduce the insulation properties of the atmosphere.
It's hard to argue with someone who responds with links, but none of the content behind those links contradicts what I said.
There can be a day-to-day variation of 10+ degrees. If Monday is cold and Tuesday is warm, and I say "this is because of global warming", then if Wednesday is lukewarm then I discredited myself.
> this year above average by 3 degrees, 5 years later below average by 3 degrees
> There can be a day-to-day variation of 10+ degrees
You seem to be confusing weather with climate change.
Weather refers to short-term atmospheric conditions, such as daily temperature and precipitation variations, while climate change represents long-term shifts in average temperature, precipitation patterns, and other climatic factors over extended periods, often spanning decades (3+) to centuries.
Then there is some yearly variation, say, this year above average by 3 degrees, 5 years later below average by 3 degrees.
If you call the yearly variation climate change, then five years later your opponents will say "you see, it was a hoax".
It is a bit like presidents taking credit for the stock market going up. Then when it inevitably goes down, it makes them look bad.