I think it's unlikely that SpaceX wasn't aware of the damage that would be caused. They have a pretty good engineering team, and that aspect didn't involve an anomaly, it was the vehicle operating as planned at launch. But admitting the inadequacy of the launch facility would've undoubtedly led to significant delays. Fortunately for SpaceX, the rocket blew up, which will draw media attention away from the damage on and around the launchpad.
There were multiple unexpected "energetic events" seen by observers apparently due to some of the engines failing around liftoff. These "energetic events" could have contributed to greater than expected downward force under the launchpad. If correct, it seems positive that the excess energy was directed downward still permitting the liftoff. That the ship was able to continue the flight through Max-Q and up to MECO and starting the separation spin maneuver seems like a very positive sign. I believe they've already started construction of upgraded launch facilities which include fire trenches and water deluge systems. This first launch facility was basically a V 0.1 test and it appears to have done its job of getting a Starship test article in the air. It's important to remember their development strategy is pipelined and intentionally test-to-failure with multiple improving prototypes in simultaneous parallel construction. Today's test ship was already several versions old.
Also, the rocket didn't exactly "blow up", it apparently lost attitude control during the separation spin maneuver and couldn't achieve the parameters necessary for stage separation. The subsequent rotations appeared to be attempts at automated attitude recovery. The eventual termination was a controlled FTS initiated when SpaceX determined the flight was unrecoverable. I found it incredible that a supersonic rocket about twice as big as anything humans have ever launched was able to rotate several times at around 1300 Mph and over 100,000 ft altitude while maintaining structural integrity. Fortunately, it appears they were able to delay detonating the controlled demolition charges long enough to receive the vital telemetry data that was the entire reason for today's test. That this early prototype managed to load fuel, pressurize, ignite engines, clear the tower, reach MaxQ, MECO, start the separation turn and then down link all the data makes it a massive success from SpaceX's perspective. Everything after MaxQ was pure bonus territory. The engineers at SpaceX must be thrilled to be ingesting all that sweet data from hundreds of internal sensors and start comparing real-world performance against their simulation models.
"test-to-failure" means that when you realize you may have made a mistake, you don't automatically scrap all your work to fix the mistake before continuing down the development path. You complete that prototype and test it because there are a thousand more mistakes to discover. Even if the known mistake will for sure result in a catastrophic failure, there may still be a large window of opportunity for productive mistake discovery before that for-sure failure ends that test run. You want to discover and fix mistakes in parallel, not serially.
Obviously there are judgment calls for when a mistake might prove too costly even in a test run. But manifestly SpaceX has damn good judgment in that regard. If you don't like how the sausage is made, just avert your eyes; don't complain about how ugly the sausage making process is.
From the launch commentary, the rocket is designed to do a 180 at that altitude for the separation event. So a couple extra rotations isn’t going to hurt anything. Additionally, air density at 100k ft is ~1/80th of sea level, which helps.
You mean it should have separated on a 180-flip? Boosting rocket all the way there to break and start orbiting in opposite direction? No way. F9 doesn't do that. The booster should have flipped without starship. That was mistake on commentator side - they were talking all the time like everything is normal. Even when we all saw it started to twist, commentator sayd something like: waiting on separation.
Anyways, the stress rocket experiences in a position like that is such that they break up, because its not designed for positions like that - we have seen that on failing rockets videos. This one did multiple flips with upper stage attached that shouldn't be there on rotation. And thats great :)
This is kind of dumb. SpaceX not only was aware of the damage that would likely be caused, but there are already steel pieces of a flame diverter that arrived a couple of weeks ago at Starbase:
https://twitter.com/CosmicalChief/status/1644405156132290560...
They intentionally chose not to install it yet to accelerate the launch (it has been two years without flight testing, they need more data and this booster needed to be gone). It's a perfectly fine decision, it just means more repair after this inaugural flight than normal. If the cost of the repair is less than the cost of delay (and delay impacts Starlink, various payload customers, and especially NASA's Artemis program), then you're a poor manager if you choose delay.
The media have largely been completely ignorant about this kind of testing. Exception being those who have space as their main beat, like Space News, etc. Everyone in the space industry pretty much understands the concept of a test regime that has a high probability of failure. They understand that it's about an order of magnitude cheaper and about 3 times faster than the usual defense contractor "failure is not an option" approach. That's why you had such supportive comments from the NASA Administrator and anyone else who is actually in this industry.
It sounded like Elon also put a decent probability on the rocket exploding on the pad. In that case, the flame diverter would likely have been destroyed anyway.
> I think it's unlikely that SpaceX wasn't aware of the damage that would be caused.
"SpaceX" isn't a unified mind. It's not even a hivemind, no company is.
We keep saying "company knew about X", but it's a such a mischaracterization of how companies, or any group of humans, work. Yes, some people in the company might have known it, but for various reasons, be it poor communication, mistaken assumptions, willful ignorance, or what have you, that information wasn't acted upon. Companies have complicated and chaotic dynamics. We Do Not Have An Algorithm For Truth.
In effect, "Company knew about X" is practically a meaningless oxymoron.
Yes, the "company" may be the "responsible entity", but as a century of corporate history demonstrates, that doesn't mean very much in practice, as the individual people within the company who might theoretically be tagged can weasel out of consequences.
My issue with this take is that companies have used leverage and lobbying to get to define when a company isn't a single entity and when it is not, always in their advantage. For example, a company is involved in a human death: the company is suddenly not a single entity and is instead simply part of this complex system of moving parts out of which emerged a human death. As another example, a corporation wants to donate to politicians (for "reasons"): the company is suddenly a single entity and even individual (!) who has constitutional rights to political donations.
Companies flip flop back and forth between them being a collective and individual at will and to their singular benefit.
Or maybe they estimated the chances of the launch pad being entirely obliterated during the launch attempt as pretty high and didn't want to invest more money into it than absolutely necessary?
Turns out they were indeed right! The hole is Boring Company-worthy.
Joking aside, the test was successful, but the missing concrete and what seems to be 50 meters of sand below it is a problem for the next test launch schedule. The pad they’ll need for reusability will be as impressive as the rocket itself.
Interesting article. He doesn't really speak of a large hole in the ground and huge chunks of debris flying around though. More of the effects of the heat and sound energy on wildlife which is not quite as obvious.
He raises some good points indeed, not sure why it was flagged at all.
> IMO, we (as a whole) should spend less time spreading ANY information online, use more time to think before speak
When it comes to insensitive tweets vomited out over the internet I totally agree. Though even those of us more considerate can contribute to this by simply not following people who do that. I'm personally not even using Twitter at all and I never did even before Musk took it over. I find the signal/noise ratio way too low there and anything really interesting there makes Hacker News anyway. But anyway that's a tangent.
So, if you read something that really makes you think: "Wow that's really an insensitive hot take", just block the person from your feeds, no matter who they are. Especially if it's not the first time. Makes your life a lot more relaxing. And it's more effective than wishing that haters are gonna stop hating.
However this particular article was thoughtful and came with a lot of explanations, diagrams and source links. It was pretty hard criticism of SpaceX and the FAA but it was not agressive or flaming. To me it seems pretty well thought out and it gives balance to a complex story by showing a side to it I wasn't aware of yet. Not saying the story itself is balanced, but it gives balance to the other media which are overwhelmingly positive and don't cover the ecological side at all.
In other words, this is not the thing that should be cut from being spread online, in my opinion.
The author has clearly written about this before but that doesn't necessarily invalidate them or make them biased. They can also simply be right and been ignored so they keep writing about it. When you 'go fast and break things' it's important to consider the things you are breaking, even if they are not very obvious. One of the questions that comes to my mind is: "Why is this thing even in the middle of protected habitats?"
I read that article shortly before it was black-holed. When I was done, I wanted to read some of the discussion around it. When I saw that it was nowhere to be found, I distinctly remember thinking “what the hell is going on with this place?”
I think you'll find that Hacker News can be quite hostile to something viewed as "alternative" information, especially if it relates to certain companies. I found the article quite interesting and actually quite informative and evidence driven.
The gist of the comment is not on the downvotes of that particular comment in and of itself, as much as the overall behaviour of HN and using itself as a data-point to support the hypothesis. At the time of writing I made a prediction on the behaviour of HN. I did not make a comment about the votes of a particular comment after the fact, therefore, I am clear.
> gist of the comment is not on the downvotes of that particular comment in and of itself
The gist doesn’t matter. You commented on being downvoted. That’s against the guidelines and gets flagged. Your comment is stronger without the throwaway bit at the end.
There has always been some of that on HN. But the ideas which get downvoted have slowly shifted over time.
I’ve been on HN for well over a decade. I remember it being more startup focused, and more libertarian politically. My perception is that it became a bit woke for awhile, but now the backlash to that sort of thinking has happened in earnest.
We have all the comments going back to the start of the site. I’d love to see an analysis of what HN believes and how it has changed over time as a new generation has joined the community.
And yet here we are in a thread discussion how the rocket did more damage than anyone thought.
That article was always going to be flagged, strictly because of its content. Maybe it could have snuck in with a headline like "Great news, SpaceX wisely found ways to launch rocket 20% more powerful than they planned for", but I doubt it.
The title is a completely reasonable and accurate reflection of the opinions that the author presents. If there’s disagreement about the opinions, that’s what discussion is for. I think this kind of thing is indicative of hn being on a bit of a downward slide.
This is disingenuous when you consider that it's not really over the top, and less subjectively, mods have other tools available to them, like renaming submission titles.
With hindsight, we can now actually conclue that it was in fact, over the top. They claimed that buildingds would be destroyed and neighboring communites would be scarred for life.
A 10x-100x increase in sound beyond approved levels, intentionally skipping or lobbying to skip approvals, ignoring environmental impact, and using designs as if they were approved when it was really earlier, much different versions are not examples of gray areas.
Fair point, there's definitely some hyperbole there. "More than anyone thinks" would mean the author doesn't think it will damage as much as he's saying either.
Sort of implies the article was hyperbole, which it was.
> it's unlikely that SpaceX wasn't aware of the damage that would be caused
If there is a material chance you won’t clear the tower, building an elaborate pad is overkill. I disagree that a new mount means months of delays—SpaceX has been building these faster than legacy operators.
> need one that won't turn to a hail of debris and a crater
They have these. At their permanent launch sites. This is a test site. That the rocket reached max Q suggests this isn’t a problem needing solving right now.
One usually throttles down around max Q, so it's unclear from outside.
> rest with nozzles dented by rocks at ground escape velocity
Now we're speculating beyond the data. (Actually, we have counterfactual data: it reached max Q. That doesn't happen if you have mis-shaped nozzles causing flow separation.)
Earlier you seemed to imply that you could achieve max Q with six engines out by not throttling down as much. Why does the same not apply to overcoming possibly dented engine nozzles?
Thanks for posting that link. I found the article informative and actually well-written and driven by evidence and examples.
It is really striking to me how people are willing to throw the environment under the proverbial bus and literal rocket in order to further some false idea of improving humanity. We're actively killing a live planet, currently the only planet known to be able to house human and life in general for that matter, to reach a dead planet on the whims and wishes of paper billionaires.
Ignoring the complexity of accomplishing that, such an enterprise would cost an immense amount of material and pollution. Also, it would not stabilize or decrease mining on Earth.
no one thats been following the test campaign for Super Heavy is surprised by the damage. the damage to the pad has been documented after the 3, 14, and 33 engine Static fires in the run up to launch. I believe they said SpaceX has been experimenting with different concrete formulations in the repairs after each static fire. There has also been photos of what appears to be flame diverters on site at Starbase, and I think they have even done a crude test fit of them under the OLM at some point recently.
Yeah, I think it's been surprising to a lot of people. There have been a lot of questions among people who follow space as to why they didn't start with a flame diverter and water deluge system.
I guess they felt the delay to install one would be too long, and they really wanted to get this launched? Or maybe they had reason to believe they'd get away with it... seems implausible given the forces involved.
Hopefully the data will work that out. Raptor 1 seemed to have quality control issues in that some percentage of engines would fail, hopefully this isn't also the case for Raptor 2 or at least can be worked out.
It was expected. They have moved deluge equipment from Canaveral and have partially installed it, which they wouldn't have done if it wasn't expected to be needed.
Surely considering what the Saturn V launchpad used - a rather huge hole in the ground lined with concrete and an insane amount of water being released to dampen sound and damage ???.
I think this non deluge system was 100% intentional as a cost saving measure to just see if the asset acquired clearance from launch tower. The next iteration of launch will have one.
They predict shattered glass,damaged foundations of beachside homes, and people scarred for life by the launch.
This was hyperbolic fearmongering. The actual launch was very close to baseline expectations. The lack of launch pad flame channels was common knowlegle, and no great insight.
This entire blog is dedicated to environmental complants about SpaceX operations. If there had been flame channels, the author would instead be writing about how they are pointed at sensitive environmental habitat.
Would strongly disagree. Reading the article it doesn't sound like fear-mongering at all.
In fact their concerns about FAA cutting corners in allowing SpaceX to build such a facility seem quite legitimate. Especially if they are passionate about protecting sensitive environment habitat which is a voice that we need more of in this world.
So this needs to be stressed: the only reason the area around Starbase is protected habitat is because SpaceX built Starbase there. Because space launches fall under FAA and thus Federal regulation, the area around them becomes Federal land and subject to Federal environmental review and protection. This is the same reason Cape Canaveral is surrounded by protected wetlands - it's because the Cape Canaveral launch complex is there.
But that's predicated on the facility existing. If SpaceX hadn't bought that land - and they did buy it - it was for sale - then those wetlands would not be protected habitat at all.
Are you still of the opinion that the article was not close to the truth at all? Windows were shattered, the highway next to the facility was damaged and is still closed, Port Isabel was showered with dust and debris, and more.
Go through that article to find every specific prediction you can (e.g. broken glass & damaged foundations in the town 8.5km away). Then compare these to what happened.
When I tried it, I found that they were more incorrect than they were correct and the biggest harms predicted were the things they were the most wrong about.
the wide angle makes it look a lot further away from the rocket than they really were - The camera is about 440m away from the rocket.
The damage shown in the video appears to be entirely caused by debris while the article was suggesting possible property damage ("shattered glass and damaged foundations ... from a miscalculated sonic blast") to towns 8500m away - 20 times further
Wow! You can see the chunk nail the corner of the NASASpaceflight stream van (on the left of the frame) at 0:15.
Unlucky hit! But I guess lucky it missed the camera gear.
The team was chuckling on the stream about how they opened the vehicle windows for airflow to the electronics gear inside... but SpaceX helped them open it even more.
Interestingly, this post predicting exactly this kind of damage was flagged on HN just days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35590279
I think it's unlikely that SpaceX wasn't aware of the damage that would be caused. They have a pretty good engineering team, and that aspect didn't involve an anomaly, it was the vehicle operating as planned at launch. But admitting the inadequacy of the launch facility would've undoubtedly led to significant delays. Fortunately for SpaceX, the rocket blew up, which will draw media attention away from the damage on and around the launchpad.