It will be interesting to see this unfold. But I am inclined to believe Ulbricht here.
My main reason for finding it immediately believable is that the name "Dread Pirate Roberts" is an obvious Princess Bride reference to a pirate who inherited his trade and occupation from another pirate. That combined with the fact that the name did not appear on the forums for the first few months leads me to believe that the name is an inside joke about the fact that the Dread Pirate Roberts did not create the site.
The 2013 quote from the Dread Pirate Roberts saying the same thing when he had no particular reason to lie is just icing on the cake.
People were inclined to believe Hans Reiser too[1],[2], untill he led the police to Nina's body.
Despite all the evidence, lots of people did not want to believe it was him and held out for hope, in the end, though, people realized indeed it was he who did it.
I totally wanted to believe in Hans, given his accomplishments to the file system community and open source, I was saddened when he admitted to doing it.
He _did_ have a particular reason to lie about this in 2013, and to make his name Dread Pirate Roberts and spread rumors that he wasn't the first one. He could have been setting up just this kind of defense.
You don't even need to believe him, as long as it casts doubt on the prosecution's narrative. I'm interested to see what digital forensics the government relies on to prove association with the evidence. Is he guilty? Probably. But that is not sufficient for conviction, at least in theory.
My main reason for finding it immediately believable is that the name "Dread Pirate Roberts" is an obvious Princess Bride reference to a pirate who inherited his trade and occupation from another pirate. That combined with the fact that the name did not appear on the forums for the first few months leads me to believe that the name is an inside joke about the fact that the Dread Pirate Roberts did not create the site.
The 2013 quote from the Dread Pirate Roberts saying the same thing when he had no particular reason to lie is just icing on the cake.