This distinction is already visible today in our field. Looking at my batch of CS grads, there's clear divide between people who took on riskier positions or joined startups and people who continued to do what they were already good at. A few years after graduation, and this divide is already fairly stark - with people in the former being exponentially better than when they left school, and people in the latter not growing significantly.
The best people in CS are no different than the best workers/athletes in any field. The challenge for the next few decades will be to see how we can improve the pedagogy at Universities to help people learn to learn better.
You're probably right. I guess I'm looking at a visible divide in skill and knowledge occuring in my friends right now and trying to find some sort of casual factor. While casting people along the 'startup/big-company' variable gives some immediate separation, it's by no means the only factor.
When I do the same exercise, it seems to come down to not much more than hard work. The more skilled and knowledgeable people are those that generally work hard and persevere through difficult challenges.
The best people in CS are no different than the best workers/athletes in any field. The challenge for the next few decades will be to see how we can improve the pedagogy at Universities to help people learn to learn better.