I don't know your friend so I can't say why he's right/wrong 50% of the time. But I'd say that's pretty typical with analysts in the financial industry. It's really tough to blend quantitative and qualitative analysis together, but IMO this is a requirement to make consistently good investment choices. I think this is the secret behind Warren Buffett. Most of Wall Street though tends to focus on the quantitative (and only a few quarters out) and they tend to be highly influenced by each other, trends and sentiment.
Again, I generally agree with the advice of going with low-cost index funds for the vast majority of people. However, I do think that there are some people (albeit not many) with the right background, skills, training and commitment who can consistently beat the markets (ie., this was the thesis of Peter Lynch's book Beating the Street).
Again, I generally agree with the advice of going with low-cost index funds for the vast majority of people. However, I do think that there are some people (albeit not many) with the right background, skills, training and commitment who can consistently beat the markets (ie., this was the thesis of Peter Lynch's book Beating the Street).