Are you at all worried that the increased comment friction will cause us to lose a lot of users? I guess the counter argument could be made that if we lose people because they are upset they can't post angry/useless comments, we might be better off without those users. And if it's so many that HN ceases to be useful to everyone, it might be better for the world if HN didn't exist. Which is a sobering thought.
The other failure mode I can think of is that there are plenty of high karma users who make occasional intemperate comments. I myself have been guilty betimes. Are you at all worried that such folks will just go back and forth endorsing each others' bad comments?
Re: your plan to check out of HN. You will be missed.
A bad new user experience is just plain bad. I've been on at least one forum where they did this for the first N comments and my experience was basically that you are taken out of the conversation. Yes, your comments eventually get approved, but 15, 60, or 600 minutes later. By that time the people who can speak freely have already moved on and whatever you had to say is no longer relevant.
I feel like it will continue down the path of groupthink that has been a criticism by some I think. I think that claim has been a bit too much but at the same time it is a real thing. But, I've also never been a fan of needing to be "sponsored" to have your say.
The other failure mode I can think of is that there are plenty of high karma users who make occasional intemperate comments. I myself have been guilty betimes. Are you at all worried that such folks will just go back and forth endorsing each others' bad comments?
Re: your plan to check out of HN. You will be missed.