Something they didn't touch on is the possible size of payouts: if you get your refund, you get N dollars (pounds, I guess, in this case), whereas there is no set upper bound to the ticket.
That said, if you look at the comments, some guy did something clever and searched eBay for Elvis tickets, and found them going for $60, which may well mean you'd be better off getting the refund.
Those Elvis tickets would have gone for more right after Elvis's death if eBay had been around. To properly compare, you would need to find out what Elvis tickets went for in the month after his death.
Why would be the price be higher when the supply is abundant? I'd have thought it would be a lot harder to find an Elvis ticket 32 years later.
And looking on eBay, Elvis tickets are worth quite a bit more than suggested - several hundred dollars, competitive with MJ tickets (I compared completed listings). One factor in favor of Jackson tickets is that the generation that cared most for Elvis is that much older and probably doesn't use eBay as much.
I ordered three very good (2nd row side stage) tickets for the final show scheduled. I have one of mine scheduled to start on ebay later today with a minimum bid of $150. If I get a bid, I'll list the rest of my tickets. I believe I have at least 30 days to decide and don't see how a strategy can be more optimal than preselling the tickets.
There is one huge bit of information missing which makes this whole though process moot. What is the default case? If a ticket owner doesn't do anything do they get their money back or get a ticket? This will determine more then any other factor how many tickets are out on the market. People are really lazy. Assuming that everyone went and selected what they wanted (impossible) we get two cases for the $150 ticket, and two outcomes:
- Tickets are worth $5000
-- I keep it : I make a killing (or keep it), either way I have a great story to tell
-- I sell it for $150 now. I have a sad story to sell and look foolish if I told other people I sold it.
- Tickets are worth $50
- I keep it : I sell it later and loose $100 and either sell it or store it away and never tell anyone.
- I sell it: I get all my $150 back, but the story really just comes out that I was lucky.
Adding in the ability to have a really good story and piece of history for only $100 seem like a win case.
The Jackson ticket game theory thing is noteworthy - but indirectly discovering that The Times is partially hosted on typepad is more remarkable to me. I'd be interested if other Murdoch papers follow suit.
Either way people are going to think that they might be, fueling a speculative market on ebay. Wait to see if you can get more than the refund value on there and then dump them and try and make a profit.
If game theory analysis of the viability of AEG switching to an innovative business model to adapt to a crisis isn't on-topic on HN, I'm not sure what is.
That said, if you look at the comments, some guy did something clever and searched eBay for Elvis tickets, and found them going for $60, which may well mean you'd be better off getting the refund.