> it is quite possible he would be able to conjure up something that would end up in the whole endeavor delivering the ring to him, instead of destroying it.
This is the exact argument the article is arguing against. You can only make assumptions based on what is known in the story. The author makes many valid arguments on why Sauron more than likely would not see it coming if it were to happen this way.
>quite possible he would be able to conjure up something
Its quite possible he wouldn't know. Its quite possible .. for anything to happen when you make random assumptions.
Both the pro- and anti-eagle arguments make assumptions. The pro-eagle argument is built on assumptions about the limits of power.
We know that Sauron is unequaled in power among the Maia. We know that Sauron built mountain ranges. We know that Saruman easily overcame Gandalf. We know that Gandalf has powers that allowed him to overcome a Balrog.
Tolkien has made the artistic choice to shield our eyes from overt magical power. It is the nature Middle Earth that great magical power is a very real thing. The lack of clear evidence of the exact limits of magic is because Tolkien really did not want to discuss it, and that is not a good argument for simplistic assumptions.
Assuming the non-existence of great magical power in the hands of Sauron is just foolishness. It boils down to whether a guess about the limits of Sauron's power is more believeable than a guess about the potential extent.
I would further note that the Council of Elrond may have no firm knowledge either. In the end, they guess that secrecy is the best hope.
As I said, it boils down to guesses about the limits of Sauron's power. Reasonable people can disagree about the best guess. Unreasonable people pretend their guesses are not guesses.
That it is, to some degree, possible to evade Sauron's efforts by means of secrecy was a proven fact, or the Ringbearer would not have been alive to attend Council of Elrond at all.
The guess that someone who can create mountain ranges cannot swat an eagle floating by in plain sight, right in front of his seat of power, is not an obviously correct one.
This is the exact argument the article is arguing against. You can only make assumptions based on what is known in the story. The author makes many valid arguments on why Sauron more than likely would not see it coming if it were to happen this way.
>quite possible he would be able to conjure up something
Its quite possible he wouldn't know. Its quite possible .. for anything to happen when you make random assumptions.