Whenever there is a massive paradigm shift in technology like we have with AI today, there are absolutely massive, devastating wars because the existing strategic stalemates are broken. Industrialized precision manufacturing? Now we have to figure out who can make the most rifles and machine guns. Industrialized manufacturing of high explosives? Time to have a whole world war about it. Industrialized manufacturing of electronics? Time for another world war.
Industrialized manufacturing of intelligence will certainly lead to a global scale conflict to see if anyone can win formerly unwinnable fights.
Thus the concerns about whether you have a job or not will, in hindsight, seem trivial as we transition to fighting for our very survival.
To me global rise of full blown authoritarianism in every corner seems more plausible than a shooting war. The tech is very well suited for controlling people - both in the monitoring sense and destroying their ability to tell what’s really.
ie new stalemate in the form of multiple inward focused countries/blocs
Yeah LLMs complete the surveillance state. It adds the patience to monitor, analyze, de-anonymize all the data. The industrial revolution and its wealth temporarily disrupted civilization, but we're regressing to the normal state of global authoritarianism again.
The internet and mobile phones weren't paradigm shifts for warfare. There were already mobile radios in WWII, so they fall under the 'industrialized manufacturing of electronics' bucket.
Just for the sake of argument, I don't think the internet and mobile phones are military technologies, nor to GP use those examples.
> Industrialized manufacturing of electronics?
Ukraine seems to be exploring this and rewriting military doctrine. The Iranian drones the Russians are using seem to be effective, too. The US has drones, too, and we've discovered that drone bombing is not helpful with insurgencies; we haven't been in any actual wars for a while, though.
> Industrialized manufacturing of intelligence
I don't think we've gotten far enough to discover how/if this is effective. If GP means AI, then we have no idea. If GP means fake news via social media, then we may already be seeing the beginning effects. Both Obama and Trump had a lot of their support from the social media.
Having written this, I think I flatly disagree with GP that technology causes wars because of its power. I think it may enable some wars because of its power differential, but I think a lot is discovered through war. WWI discovered the limitations of industrial warfare, also of chemical weapons. Ukraine is showing what constellations of mini drones (as opposed to the US' solitary maxi-drones) can do, simply because they are outnumbered and forced to get creative.
how do you not think the internet is a military technology? i mean (waves hands) like it's from ARPA, the military paid for it, it integrated cold war air defence, it made global comms resilient to attack, and made information non-local on a massive scale
GP's assertion about tech revolutions making wars doesn't make any sense to me on any level, but it's not just because the latest revolutions were 'not military tech'
i'm liking william spaniel's model : wars happen when 1 - there is a substantial disagreement between parties and 2 - there is a bargaining friction that prevents reaching a less-costly negotiated resolution.
I don't see how a technical revolution necessarily causes either, much less both, of those conditions. there sure is a lot of fear and hype going around - and that causes confusion and maybe poor decisions - but we should chill on the apocalyptics
Yugoslav civil war and Bosnian genocide. Rwandan civil war and Tutsi genocide. US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. Syrian civil war and Yazidi genocide. Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ongoing genocide in Palestine suddenly becoming more intense in Gaza.
Future generations will call this ongoing conflict starting in the 90s the Eugenics Wars.
All our human history is a tiny speck on astronomical timescales. The timescale of life itself, on the other hand, is quite significant. Just from this we can somewhat deduce that life might be common in the universe, but sentience might be rare.
Whenever there is a massive paradigm shift in technology like we have with AI today, there are absolutely massive, devastating wars because the existing strategic stalemates are broken. Industrialized precision manufacturing? Now we have to figure out who can make the most rifles and machine guns. Industrialized manufacturing of high explosives? Time to have a whole world war about it. Industrialized manufacturing of electronics? Time for another world war.
Industrialized manufacturing of intelligence will certainly lead to a global scale conflict to see if anyone can win formerly unwinnable fights.
Thus the concerns about whether you have a job or not will, in hindsight, seem trivial as we transition to fighting for our very survival.