Even people in category #1 should be concerned. Even if their income is not directly affected, the potential for disruption is clearly brewing: mass unemployment, social and civil unrest.

I know smart and capable people that have been unemployed for 6+ months now, and a few much longer. Some have been through multiple layoffs.

I am presently employed, but have looked for a job. The market is the worst I've seen in my almost 30 year career. I feel deeply for anyone who needs a new job right now. It is really bad out there.

Agree. I feel like most of the people sounding the alarm have been in the software-focused job hunting market for 6+ months.

Those who downplay it are either business owners themselves or have been employed for 2+ years.

I think a lot of software engineers who _haven't_ looked for jobs in the past few years don't quite realize what the current market feels like.

Alternatively: this is an America problem. I'm outside of America and I've been fielding more interviews than ever in the past 3 months. YMMV but the leading indicator of slowed down hiring can come from so many things. Including companies just waiting to see how much LLMs affect SWE positions.

Alternatively, it's a loud minority.

As an American I found a new job last year (Staff SW), and it was falling off a log easy, for a 26% pay bump.

It's from AI either directly or indirectly, either the top SWE's using AI are replacing 10 mid/juniors or your job is outsourced to someone doing it at half your Salary with a AI subscription. Only the top/lucky/connected SWE's will survive a year or two, if you have used any SOTA agent recently or looked at the job market you would have seen this coming and had a plan B/C in place, i.e. Enough capital to generate passive income to replace your salary, or another career that is AI safe for next 5-10 years. Alternatively stick your head in the sand.

I guess I just don’t see that happening right now. I’m at a big public startup and our hiring hasn’t changed much and we still have a ton of work and Claude code with SOTA models can shortcut some tasks but I’m still having a hard time saying it’s giving us much of a multiplier. Even with plenty of .MDs describing what we want. It can ad-lib some of the stuff but it’s not AGI yet. In 5-10 years I have no idea

In Europe it doesn’t seem too bad right now (for the 15+ yr cohort?). I interviewed at a handful of places and got an offer or two and my current team and company is hiring about the same as the last few years

I feel like that's a rather bad-faith take, so if you're going to make that kind of accusation you better back it up. People can legitimately believe that AI is not going to be the end of the world, and also not be privileged. And people can be privileged, and also be right. Not everything can be reduced down into a couple of labels, and how those labels "always" interact.

3 You realise that super-autocomplete is an incredible technology but the hype behind it far exceeds its capabilities and you're excited for the possibilities it may promise for making your work easier and more enjoyable.

For 1, unless you already have an self-sustaining underground bunker or island, you will be affected. No matter how much savings and total compensation you have. If you went out to get grocery in the last week, it will affect you.

You can get stuff delivered now and just need a ring camera and solid locks :)

Delivered by other people in the same financial situation as you of course :)

What shall I need the bunker for?

Don't worry about it.