They already allow turn-by-turn navigation apps, and allow applications for GMail, Chrome (thought they don't get the full baked in system feel). For the most part the duplicated functionality requirements aren't as strict as they were from 2008-2010.
I think they'll definitely allow a Maps app from Google if they submit one. I also think that Google very likely wanted more updates and possibly more money for their map data. Apple likely viewed this as something that was always going to be painful but something they needed to just do and get behind them. I also wonder/hope/suspect that they may already be adding more data based on reports of landmarks that weren't appearing, now appearing.
This is also a nice point: http://blog.lumatic.com/post/31863865686/ive-been-using-ios-... Usage data is what improves maps, which they'll now have a lot of. Though I am surprised they haven't picked a better provider then just TomTom, perhaps that's also in the works.
There are two basic attitudes a company can have. A) We exist to create value for our customers. B) Our customers are our property and exist for our benefit.
Basically, the company's there either to serve or to exploit. Most businesses are of the former sort. Many monopolists and oligopolists hold the later view. E.g., cable companies and cellphone carriers.
If Apple were smart and user focused about this, they would have launched their own maps in beta as an add-on. Then they would have revved it until it was just as good as Google Maps for most people. Only then would have they turned dickish and kicked Google Maps off the platform.
Why wouldn't they? In the App Store there are all sorts of browsers that compete with Safari (I know that they still have to use the built in WebView, but still), mail apps (including Gmail), that compete with Mail, camera apps that compete with the Camera app, to-do lost apps that compete with Reminders, and even many existing navigation apps, etc.
There's no reason it wouldn't be allowed in if Google complies with the guidelines...
Maps is expected to be the key monetization engine in mobile, sharing mobile ads with Google is anathema.
Maps 'replicates substantially similar content' in IOS. This one has been used quite a few times.
Apple can be pretty arbitrary about apps as we've seen but by and large from a business perspective its one of their core capabilities they will want to own.
Of course I could be completely wrong here, we'll see as this plays out of course.
