A lot of people also believe that global warming will cause terrible problems. I think that's a plausible belief but if you combine people believing one or another of these things, you've a lot of the US.
Which is to say that I don't think just dooming is going on. Especially, the belief in AGI doom has a lot of plausible arguments in its favor. I happen not to believe in it but as a belief system it is more similar to a belief in global warming than to a belief in the raptures.
> A lot of people also believe that global warming will cause terrible problems. I think that's a plausible belief but if you combine people believing one or another of these things, you've a lot of the US.
They're really quite different; precisely nobody believes that global warming will cause the effective end of the world by 2027. A significant chunk of AI doomers do believe that, and even those who don't specifically fall in with the 2027 timeline are often thinking in terms of a short timeline before an irreversible end.
I've yet to meet anyone who thinks it a certainty in the community. Even my short-timeline friends who don't contribute to retirement savings and otherwise have clearly seen their mental health deteriorate over the stress still don't think it a certainty at all. Just something they reason as likely enough that it is reasonable to stress out over and change life plans over.
I don't think it was dumb of scientists during the nuclear arms race in the 50s to think there was a significant enough chance humans were going to go extinct soon (years, not decades) because of the developments they were seeing and as a result getting very anxious and doing things like stopping their retirement savings plans.
The fears from that era were 100% well-founded within the group or scientists who were most on the know about developments. Same goes for AI development.
Talking to people I have met who used to work at OpenAI as AI researchers and left because of AI safety concerns paints a very clear "these are reasonable-headed people with well-informed beliefs" when they say things like there is a small but significant chance we lose control by 2027. Because humans are ganna human and place shareholder value and beating China over safety.
Which is to say that I don't think just dooming is going on. Especially, the belief in AGI doom has a lot of plausible arguments in its favor. I happen not to believe in it but as a belief system it is more similar to a belief in global warming than to a belief in the raptures.