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The GOP controls the house and senate. Congress controls tariffs.

If they followed the law congress could make the thing happen. But I don't think think independent thinking is allowed in the GOP, and it might force their hand if they had to actually put it to a vote ...



They have a narrow so small that passing tariffs would still be politically difficult even though they control both chambers, and that is not even considering a filibuster.

I hope this judgement stands, however, trade actually works out really well for the US economy and its job market. Yes, we don't often manufacture the thing, but we have huge roles in designing those things and packing them with software. Even China is trying to get in on that while they offload manufacturing to robots and countries that are earlier on in their development.


Three of the post senior citizen Democratic representatives died in office so far so the margin is actually getting bigger as time goes on, the GOP had room to make multiple mistakes on the budget bill where one GOP rep fell asleep and didn't vote and one rep was present but just missed the deadline to vote. The Democratic senators have not shown the spine to put a hold on any appointments or pull a Tuberman and not let appointments through, let alone a filibuster, and Fetterman has gone off his meds and it shows, he's turned into a GOP senator after his strokes. Chuck Schumer on the other hand appeared earlier to be more interested in going on a book tour to sell his book. The whole thing appears to be on the precipice.


> Three of the post senior citizen Democratic representatives died in office

None of those deaths are in swing districts.

Fetterman was always a right of center politician, the only reason he isn't a Republican is that the Republicans simply do not do moderates anymore.


But the Dems are still down three votes until those seats are filled.


Why would they ever be empty for long? Isn't it already determined who gets to join?


The one in Texas stood out for me when it happened, because the governor is GOP, he put off the special election until November so that a Democratic stronghold will not have a representative for ten months.


Schumer letting a Muslim appellate judge nominee be swiftboated also has to be up there


It would be difficult, but arguably everything has been difficult for the congressional GOP as even when they ran the house during the last cycle they could barely operate.

They struggled to pick leaders among their own party members numerous times.


It has been hard for the judicial system as well, with Trump ignoring injunctions and orders as if they were just advisory. I wonder if he will try that here as well? "Oh, the court said no tariffs, but I'm not even going to bother with an appeal to the Supreme Court and just use an executive order to invalidate...", here is hoping he doesn't do that.


It would be nice if some US marshals put Trump in jail for ignoring the court but we know nothing will come of it.


> some US marshals put Trump in jail for ignoring the court

In chess you never capture the king. Similarly, the way to fight this is have arrested the lower rung players e.g. the tax collectors. (And ICE agents conducting illegal arrests.)


Given how often American "kings" leave the metaphorical playing board, this isn't chess: it is non-euclidian, real-time, penultima, on a continuous board, with hundreds of players and billions of pieces (and any given piece is under the control of potentially multiple players), and where the secret rules for every piece include self-playing behaviours and weird emergent dynamics.

And in penultima, sometimes the king isn't the real target, and attempting to capturing it destroys random other pieces instead.


Sounds like there isn’t support for this agenda, and they’re breaking the law to force it on the country. They could moderate their position to something that would pass congress if they cared about the Republic.


There is no filibuster. Somehow the democrats are to weak to attempt one and completely caved on everything.


Cory Booker's world record fillibuster wasn't real?


He got a record but didn’t actually stop the bill from passing as I remember it.


isn’t it easier to just say that the shadowy courts are the reason for all the problems and not actually ram the tariffs through? This seems like an off ramp is being extended. Who actually wants the tariffs?


>Who actually wants the tariffs?

Trump and Peter Navarro (along with his advisor "Ron Vara") really think tariffs are a windfall of government funding. They *really* want them.

Sneak in a massive regressive tax hike and just use bombast and cult-like rhetoric to pretend that if any of it hits consumers -- and 100% of it will -- it's really just evil Walmarts and other nefarious vendors who caused that.

The US federal balance sheet is a spectacular disaster, and Trump's Big Massive Deficit Bill is going to make it much worse. Americans need to settle in for the reality that higher taxes are going to be a near term reality.


>Who actually wants the tariffs?

Probably the shorts who get a text from Kushner or someone else in the inner circle ahead of Trumps next public rant. Take profit then go long for when Trump gets embarrassed at the days low and flips his position again.


It's not clear to me if there's a strategy as detailed as that. I honestly think Trump thinks like he tweets and it's just that shallow, and arbitrary.


The republicans leadership in the house has put mechanisms in place to prevent reps from challenging the tarrif laws. I don’t think it’d be a cake walk for them to do it through the legislative branch


Wouldn't they still have to deal with filibusters?


Codifying tariffs would also mean they probably can't change it every day to different numbers, no?


They can put a procedure in place to allow for some changes, just not under the ridiculous “state of emergency”.


Potentially they can codify broader authority for executive to regulate tariffs…


Too much of that should, but probably won't, set off every alarm and siren with the conservative justices, for stepping way over the line, after their reasoning on Chevron.


The bigger problem would be their own party members.


In what sense?


The GOP in congress has struggled, even last election cycle to gather enough votes to take action.

They ran through several rounds where they couldn't even pick a house majority leader among their own party.

The tariffs would be very difficult considering each of their local concerns.


Additionally, in the first Trump presidency congress temporarily removed the debt limit. I don't think there are even votes to do that now so compromising on how to fund the government is going to take a lot of effort (that can't be spent on tariff rates).


I wish they would replace the debt limit with something more sensibly designed like the German (or Swiss) debt brake ('Schuldenbremse').

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_balanced_budget_amendme...

The American debt limit regularly shuts down the government, but debt still keeps piling up. The German debt brake doesn't seem to shut down the government, but actually lead to a substantial drop in the debt-to-gdp ratio.


Most GOP senators don't want the tariffs. It's just they're too scared of retaliation hurting their re-election chances (exhibit A: Cheney) if they defy Trump. It's easier to not challenge an Executive Order, which also puts the blame on Trump if people are unhappy, which they are, than it is to vote on the Tariffs at which point the Senate/House is responsible for the fiasco.


Trump is claiming that imbalanced trade is a national emergency, allowing him to address it via executive order.

There has to be limits to this though, otherwise in (self-declared) wartime you have a dictator (cf Julius Caesar DICT PERP - all the power, all the time).


I don't see any political party cherishing "independent thinking."




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