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> This is the safest period in human history by a huge margin.

There has been almost ten times more victims of conflict in 2023 as in 2005. [1]

And, as you said, we are now a bit more aware of those deaths (although I suspect a large amount occurred in conflicts that don't make western news headlines.)

The number of victims might pale against WWII, of course - but we're slowly arriving at time where WWII is not only "last century", but a "century ago".

I don't think anyone compared the figures of the Vietnam War of the 1960s to the US civil war of 1860s. Or did they ?

Anyway, in the average life span of an average human being with a normal memory, this is more likely to be one of the _worst_ period.

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/deaths-in-armed-conflicts...



As someone who lives in the hegemon, I’m doing pretty well and would rather not test hegemonic stability theory the hard way


> There has been almost ten times more victims of conflict in 2023 as in 2005.

You're talking about an 18 year period...do you know how long human history is?

> average life span of an average human being with a normal memory

I think you entirely missed the point of my comment, which is this: it feels more dangerous. But it isn't.


In this case we actually agree, but we draw completely different conclusions.

You're absolutely right that 18-20 years is a small period compared to human history, and that the average person has a lower risk of dying in a conflict than, say a century ago.

However, I argue that 20 years is _huge_ in terms of human _life_. Consider that the median age of the world population is 30 years old ! To most of the people, the way the world was 50 years ago or 100 years ago is as much "abstract" as what the world was 1000 years ago.

However, they remember the 2000s or 2010s. They were there ! And they saw more people fleeing wars or coming back in bodybags recently when they did in their youth. You might consider that only a "feeling" ; but I would think twice before dismissing it as irrelevant, because "it's only a feeling".

I argue that "local" inflexions in the long stream of history still matter. They can ripple in the long run.




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