I think Ukraine would be open to talking about returning former Russian territory in case Russia accepts its defeat and returns all Ukrainian territory...

We don't need Russia to "accept defeat".

We need, first and foremost, a guarantee that if the war stops today, that Russia will not launch an invasion for the third time in a few years.

This war didn't start in 2022. They invaded in 2014, and "peace" was negotiated in Minsk. Worked out swimmingly.

There are several ways we can get this guarantee:

-A complete withdrawal and de-nuclearization of Russia, plus referendums held in Chechnya, Tatarstan, Syberia, Yakutia and other Moscow-controlled Republics in the Federation on whether the people there want to continue being a part on Moscow's imperial ambitions, or choose independence.

Side note: Tatarstan had such a referendum in 1992. It would be great if its results were, at last, honored.

Return of occupied territories is a means to an end. The end is peace. If Russia gets rewarded in any way for its invasion with acceptance of its territorial gains, they WILL do it again; the calculus is that simple.

-Alternatively, NATO and EU membership and/or any sort of multilateral security agreement (not a promise) that would guarantee us boots-on-the-ground assistance in case of another invasion, backed by something more than a piece of paper.

Say, NATO stations ammo depots, rockets, warplanes in Ukraine in sealed warehouses, and we promise not to take and use any of that stuff as long as NATO holds up to its own promises.

-Ukraine develops nuclear weapons

That's about all I can think of. Everything else has been tried before. The war started in 2014, and the invasion in 2022 took place after all the nuke-fearing pearl-clutchers suggested was already done.

Funny thing, the only thing that makes Russia use nuclear weapons more likely is impunity, which is exactly what that sort of people is asking for. They are bringing their own doom, and are pulling us along with it.

Trying to, in any case. We won't go. With or without them.

Still avoiding the core point of "why would the guy who has your things suddenly decide to return them".

And "why would something that was put in motion stop, the roots remaining unchanged".

He doesn't have Ukraine's things. He's renting them out, and the price is the lives of Russian soldiers. Once he stops paying, things go back to the owner.

It’s amazing what you can accomplish when you don’t care about human lives.

The price may also be paid in the form of a handful of nukes. The deep state is desperately trying to provoke something before a deal can be negotiated. Stop cheering on the use of Ukrainians as pawns in some chess match between psychos.

> why would the guy who has your things suddenly decide to return them

Because the cost of keeping them is way too high, generally. Like, historically, even when someone wins a war they often end up pulling out anyway.

I think some of the commentators in this thread need to reread the melian dialogue and remember which side here is the melians. This is the sort of magical thinking that lost Ukraine four territories already.

the AFU holds a comparatively small part of Kursk.

if it's a choice between all of Crimea or an hours drive worth of greater Kursk it's no contest; the Russians aren't going to give up the jewel of the Black Sea for a small chunk of Kursk.

I mean yeah, but also look at the falklands.

totally fucking tiny, and no strategic value, unless hunting wales becomes useful again.

Russia will not be returning all the occupied territories, nor Crimea. If Ukraine keeps pushing, they are likely to be nuked. There are some who argue that the whole war could have been avoided if Ukraine had been neutral and promised to stay out of NATO, and I agree with that analysis. Now they will still have to do that, and lose most or all of the occupied territory. Not that they cared about those territories anyway. Ukraine was shelling the people who live there in recent years. It's no wonder that they voted to join Russia.