I´d also wager that some of the competition has finally gotten they sh!t together.
Tried the new WV ev Passad and the latest Skoda Enyaq. Both have great battery range and when it comes to comfort are much better than the stiff bumby Tesla.
Tesla had momentum and they used it to the max. Now the competition has gotten wizer.
I do not subscribe to the interwebs anti-Musk rhetoric, most people do not care if he eats babies for breakfast as long as his cars are affordable, reliable, comfortable and reasonably green.
So before the Musk hate starts as is fashion in the forums these days, competition got better, Tesla are no longer ahead.
As somebody potentially in the market for an EV, I can say that for me, Musk is most definitely a factor.
Not the only factor, to be sure, but the off-putting icing on an otherwise average cake.
If Tesla were the only decent EV in town, I might hold my nose through Musk’s behaviour and buy one. They aren’t, though, so I don’t have to.
The other major factors in my decision are the very public QA issues, safety issues, and questionable design decisions (eg. all-touchscreen controls, dangerous “full self-driving” fallacy) that, combined, leave me thinking “yeah, maybe I’d rather buy from a somewhat more boring company with a longer history of _making safely-working cars_”
I don’t kid myself that the heads of most car companies are necessarily decent human beings who align with me ethically or politically, but all other things being increasingly equal, why would I opt for the one run by a childish unstable egomaniac who stands in loud, public opposition to most of what I believe in?
Maybe because VW, for example, has actually skirted pollution laws, with intent. Or because PSA management publicly derides any effort for EV transition. Or maybe because Toyota has for 20 years falsely promised EV fuel cells/engines in the next five years, all the while happily selling ICE vehicles.
If you look closely at any big corporation management, they are all egomaniacs. Just not childish enough to publicize that fact.
They had momentum and fumbled it with the Cybertruck. They retain a massive sourcing and production expertise advantage, as well as a built-in marketing advantage in their existing customers (and Superchargers).
In the time they fumbled they lost the low-end market to China. They’re currently bleeding the aspirational market to higher-end, more-differentiated brands.
I’m not a car guy. It isn’t clear where they go from here. But they both didn’t use their momentum “to the max,” nor are they out of steam.
When the Cybertruck launched was already too late for them to have launched a "budget" Tesla, and a budget Tesla is what they really needed to cement their lead in the EV industry. Now there are a bunch of decent competitors in Tesla's market segments and China is eating (or will eat) everybody's lunch in cheaper segments (except for the US, I guess, with the 100% import tax).
I have no idea what they're doing. It looks like the budget Tesla is dead in the water and they're all in on robotaxis? How is that going to work? What's their actual strategy for the near to long-term future?
> When the Cybertruck launched was already too late for them to have launched a "budget" Tesla
Sure. When the Cybertruck started diverting resources it wasn’t.
> they're all in on robotaxis?
Current market leader is Mercedes with an SAE Level 3 vehicle [1]. (Tesla markets like it’s Level 5, but it’s technically Level 2, same as my Subaru.)
Waymo is Level 4 [2]. They appear to be at their field’s forefront. If Tesla could sell a Level 4 vehicle, even one that only carries that guarantee on certain routes at certain times of the day in certain weather, it would be a game changer.
Is the only Level 3 vehicle on the roads in Germany and now California and Nevada. Until Tesla steps up and says you don’t have to pay attention, that the car can drive itself and if it fucks up it’s on Tesla, it’s Level 2. Not in the lead.
> it just follows the car in front
No, that’s active lane keeping. My Subaru does that.
> Cannot even change lanes
Yes it does [1].
> Works only under 40MPH
If you want to exceed this, you can switch to its Level 2 mode.
FSD is a very advanced Level 2 system. (Probably the most advanced.) But it’s still Level 2 because you are still supposed to closely supervise it.
First of all, consumers are used to rapid changes (churn?) in automotive design, every few years there is a major reworking of nameplates like the Toyota Corolla, Chevy Silverado, and such. Tesla hasn’t been keeping up.
Sales though is about emotions as much as anything else and the way people feel about Musk makes a difference. My take is Musk was always a bit of a punk who appealed more to some people (tech bros) than other people (women) and that tendency to rub some people the wrong way was always there but he went through a phase where it intensified. It was not so important to ‘please everybody’ when they were selling just a few cars but when you become a big brand like GM or the NFL you can’t win by driving anyone away.
I don’t know what he was thinking but from the viewpoint of making and selling cars the pivot to “conservatism” was not a good idea. For one thing liberals are a lot more interested in buying EVs and recently conservatives have been polarized against them. If “coal rollers” in Texas were going to flock to Tesla because Musk was mocking “woke” people on Twitter and leaving California that would be one thing but it isn’t.
My son’s views are relatively conservative compared to mine but he’s much more negative on Tesla and Musk than I am and his reasons cover everything from an antipathy to connected cars, touchscreens and cars becoming an extension of phones like the Apple Watch to questions of character.
It doesn’t help that like all the ex-China manufacturers, Tesla is ignoring the mainstream market and instead fixating on the profitable but limited luxury market.
As a relatively early investor, I have been watching Tesla subs for a long time. Even though I sold 2 years ago I still pay attention. While certainly not the only factor, public opinion on Musk is a significant factor it appears:
> The survey also found that 87% of Model 3 owners are considering a Tesla for their next vehicles. That means it’s a fairly small percentage of people who are actually walking away from Tesla overall, and only about one in five of those people are doing it because of Musk
People considering buying a Tesla isn’t the same as people actually buying a Tesla.
13% of owners found the experience so bad they are completely unwilling to consider the brand. People who dislike the cars or company but want a sub 45k EV with ~300 miles of range still don’t have a lot of options. Thus most current owners would at least consider buying another Tesla.
Why do you think those 13% found the experience very bad? They might have moved to an area where there are no superchargers, they may want to try something different (which people do, even if they like what they have today), they might want a different body type (sport instead of the family), there may be many other reasons.
This is the financial model the large investors have been working on. Luxury market saturation followed by commoditisation of EVs.
Go look at the Invesco QQQ ETF on Morningstar and they're the only loss in the top 10. Also why you diversify your investments and don't go all in on TSLA. Ride it, dump it.
It would be kind of weird if the customer base for a Tesla 3/Y was fundamentally different from the customer base for, say, a VW id.4 or that Hyundai whose name I forget that is everywhere, tho.
Moving the blame on right wingers feels incredibly wrong.
Reminds me how certain movie directors blame the right wingers for their movie flopping, when the real reason is their movie just sucks mega balls period. Just own your failures and stop looking for right wing straw men everywhere as scapegoats.
Money talks in the free market and consumers vote with their wallets so if you make products that are top quality and great value, they'll buy them regardless of your political orientation.
