Ukraine is a strategically important region to Russia. They don't have to invade as long as they can threaten to invade, and thereby get concessions without armed conflict.
If Ukraine joins NATO then Russia could no longer credibly threaten to invade because it would put Russia at war with NATO. Ukraine about to join NATO is thereby destabilizing, because then Russia has to choose between invading immediately before they join, or doing nothing and permanently losing their leverage. This does not make the invasion justified but it makes it expected. US diplomats knew this perfectly well and pushed for Ukraine to join NATO anyway.
It's like telling your friend to corner a vicious dog. The dog is not innocent, the dog is going to bite them and you knew that and told them to do it anyway.
> US diplomats knew this perfectly well and pushed for Ukraine to join NATO anyway.
The initiative for joining NATO came from Ukraine and not the US diplomats. Prior to 2014 the public support was too weak for it to happen. Popular support first shifted almost overnight from the majority opposing NATO membership to supporting it after Russia invaded Crimea and Eastern Ukraine in 2014, and shifted even more towards support after Russia launched the full-scale invasion in 2022: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations...
Neither invasion had anything to do with NATO. In 2014, Russia correctly judged that the international response would be too weak and made a successful land grab. After the spectacular American retreat from Afghanistan that mirrored the last days of Saigon, Russians again sensed weakness and thought Biden was too weak to intervene in Ukraine and decided that the climate was suitable for taking the next step in restoring their former empire in 2022. Planning for the 2022 invasion began around the time of US retreat from Afghanistan.
> It's like telling your friend to corner a vicious dog. The dog is not innocent, the dog is going to bite them and you knew that and told them to do it anyway.
This is a narrative propagated by Russians, and sounds convicing on the surface, but has little actual substance. Nobody's cornered. Russia's threats are bluffs, intended to paralyze you with fear and guide you into inaction, which Russia will then exploit, as they have done in Ukraine.
To continue your dog analogy, they are a dog that barks and barks, and bites only if they sense fear and weakness and see an opportunity to bite. Show strength and they'll back down. (And this is how you deal with actual dogs too; they smell fear from sweat.)
Ukraine is a strategically important region to Russia. They don't have to invade as long as they can threaten to invade, and thereby get concessions without armed conflict.
If Ukraine joins NATO then Russia could no longer credibly threaten to invade because it would put Russia at war with NATO. Ukraine about to join NATO is thereby destabilizing, because then Russia has to choose between invading immediately before they join, or doing nothing and permanently losing their leverage. This does not make the invasion justified but it makes it expected. US diplomats knew this perfectly well and pushed for Ukraine to join NATO anyway.
It's like telling your friend to corner a vicious dog. The dog is not innocent, the dog is going to bite them and you knew that and told them to do it anyway.