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I think you're spot on. Just as the personal computer and GUI brought "computing" to the masses for their use and massive scale return on investment, we need to see the equivalent innovation in programming components. In other words just as it's now easier than ever to edit movies, write a paper, polish a photo: we need to see this ease of interface brought to programming.

I know hard core CS types will say that making programming easy for the masses will mean it won't be fast, it won't allow for the optimal algorithms. However computing speed and bandwidth is rising exponentially and countless applications for software do not need to be as optimal as possible.

In the future people who are not programmers but who are one step removed (e.g. okay with spreadsheets, SQL, some basic scripting when needed, visual programming like Labview, and who understand software architecture) will need to be able to do more complex things with computers, things that today only programmers can do.

We need to see the separation between programmer and the technical creative masses disappear a bit. Or at least as tablatom says, there has to be room for two types: those who build the tools for easy programming and those who do easy programming.



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