I have 30% in S&P500 for a reason. Maybe you think it's too low?
I do want to consider your scenario:
1. If we hit a limit on chip node tech as you said, all stocks would suffer since advancements in computer chips contributes to all industries.
2. If we face another AI winter, then my job is more safe? Even if I get laid off in my current job, I assume that AI isn't good enough to completely replace me based on your scenario so I at least can find another job.
I think a professional financial planner (which I’m not) would say that 30% is too low, and also advocate holding cash and some bonds. You really have a very aggressive investment portfolio. But personally I don’t mind aggressive investment, and I feel your present allocation may be fine depending on your beliefs and your risk tolerance. Your initial post has this if-I-get-fired/if-I-don’t-get-fired analysis, which I think presents your investments as lower risk than they really are. I think your job and 70% of your investments is going to do whatever tech does. If you still feel ok with that, then I think your allocation is probably matching your beliefs and risk tolerance well.
Your initial post has this if-I-get-fired/if-I-don’t-get-fired analysis, which I think presents your investments as lower risk than they really are.
The idea is that if I don't get fired, then my job will continue to feed me. If I permanently lose my ability to make money as a software dev, then AI will have taken off and my stocks should now feed me.
I do want to consider your scenario:
1. If we hit a limit on chip node tech as you said, all stocks would suffer since advancements in computer chips contributes to all industries.
2. If we face another AI winter, then my job is more safe? Even if I get laid off in my current job, I assume that AI isn't good enough to completely replace me based on your scenario so I at least can find another job.