> Maybe they develop a version of the US/Israeli Tropy system,* and put it on all their tanks.
Russia already has such a thing (as does China). It'll never be perfect, especially against peer adversaries invested in countering it. (This includes Trophy!)
> But maybe they don't have to do much if anything, since Taiwan will be far, far harder to resupply than Ukraine.
All the more reason to do it in advance.
> If they're competent at all...
Folks thought the Russians were competent up until they had to prove it in combat. You don't think that gives the Chinese pause?
> Russia already has such a thing (as does China).
Did Russia widely deploy it?
> It'll never be perfect, especially against peer adversaries invested in countering it. (This includes Trophy!)
You could say the same thing about antitank missiles. The system doesn't have to be perfect to prevent a boatload of Javelin's from becoming some kind of trump card.
> All the more reason to do it in advance.
Sure, but supply chain problems could prevent that. Isn't the West pouring so much of their available stockpiles into Ukraine that they may not have enough send to sit in a Taiwanese warehouse?
> Folks thought the Russians were competent up until they had to prove it in combat. You don't think that gives the Chinese pause?
It will give them pause, but not a despondent "we give up forever because this proves we will always fail" pause, but rather a "lets make sure we're even better, so we can succeed when we try" pause.
> The system doesn't have to be perfect to prevent a boatload of Javelin's from becoming some kind of trump card.
It kinda does. A Javelin costs $100k. A main battle tank costs millions. Even if it takes 10-20 Javelins you're coming out on top.
> Sure, but supply chain problems could prevent that. Isn't the West pouring so much of their available stockpiles into Ukraine that they may not have enough send to sit in a Taiwanese warehouse?
Make more? Call it economic stimulus.
> It will give them pause, but not a despondent "we give up forever because this proves we will always fail" pause, but rather a "lets make sure we're even better, so we can succeed when we try" pause.
Do you think it's impossible to make Taiwan a tough enough target to resist an invasion, of the kind (massive-scale amphibious) China's never performed before?
> It kinda does. A Javelin costs $100k. A main battle tank costs millions. Even if it takes 10-20 Javelins you're coming out on top.
According to Wikpedia, they cost more than double that, without the launcher. 20 x 250k = 5 million. For comparison, an Abrams tank costs $6.21 million.
And you're talking like they're some wonder-weapon that makes tanks obsolete. I highly doubt that's true. IIRC, one of Russia's big mistakes, which increased their vulnerability to Javelins, was they tended to drive around big masses of vehicles without adequate infantry support. Tactics are something the Chinese could change.
> Make more? Call it economic stimulus.
Oh, they want to, but my understanding is those production lines take years to ramp up (at least in the West).
> Do you think it's impossible to make Taiwan a tough enough target to resist an invasion, ...
Short of giving it nukes or turning whole country into a military camp, probably.
> ... of the kind (massive-scale amphibious) China's never performed before?
There's always a first. IIRC, the US never did such a thing before D-Day.
Russia already has such a thing (as does China). It'll never be perfect, especially against peer adversaries invested in countering it. (This includes Trophy!)
> But maybe they don't have to do much if anything, since Taiwan will be far, far harder to resupply than Ukraine.
All the more reason to do it in advance.
> If they're competent at all...
Folks thought the Russians were competent up until they had to prove it in combat. You don't think that gives the Chinese pause?