The most superficial and literal reading of Moore's Law is "the number of transistors on the most economical package doubles every X months" where X changed a bit over the decades.
Not only has the number of transistors on the largest package not followed an exponential for a decade (a good hint is that people denying it repeats the law with X changed on every single iteration), but as fabs adopt more and more complex processes, the number of transistors on the most economical package has been growing very slowly, with no perspective of a doubling any soon.
On a deeper reading, the Moore's paper is all about the economics of semiconductor fabrication. And not only companies that aren't on the most advanced process are not failing as they used to, but nobody is using the law anymore to size investments.
There is just no way to read Moore's Law and interpret it into something that still exists.
> People were saying it was going to end, not that it already ended.
Not only has the number of transistors on the largest package not followed an exponential for a decade (a good hint is that people denying it repeats the law with X changed on every single iteration), but as fabs adopt more and more complex processes, the number of transistors on the most economical package has been growing very slowly, with no perspective of a doubling any soon.
On a deeper reading, the Moore's paper is all about the economics of semiconductor fabrication. And not only companies that aren't on the most advanced process are not failing as they used to, but nobody is using the law anymore to size investments.
There is just no way to read Moore's Law and interpret it into something that still exists.
> People were saying it was going to end, not that it already ended.
Oh, so you meant to say that they were correct?