History can be a fascinating topic of study. If you look back at all the civilizations across the past 4,000 years, particularly those in East Asia, you can trace the downfall to a few major things:
1) Corruption in the government, leads to inefficiency and greed
2) Angry inhabitants, which leads to revolts and overthrowing of governments (caused by #1)
You would think of all things, these two wouldn't be a big deal. You would think most civilizations would fall because there were enemies ready to attack and take them over. But peace could be purchased at a price, giving you time to build your empire and compete. The most powerful force of all, the greed and corruption, has the power to bring a nation to its knees, as it has done in the past.
Take a look at history and let it speak to you. You'll see that the United States is a baby, it's no more than 230 years old. Many civilizations lasted 500 years at a time and made enormous scientific and mathematical contributions, so we're still very "young" by comparison. I feel like we're growing very arrogant and think we can't lose our superpower status. But that type of attitude is like the attitude of a CEO who gets complacent with his startup and no longer pushes for growth or progress. And we all know what happens to those companies.
*Final edit: Just wanted to say that on HN, I understand there's sort of a "don't read politics, it's too Diggish, let's just talk about startups." But I think there's a vast amount of knowledge that can be gained by looking at history and things like politics, as I don't see much difference in trying to run a country and run a company. You have to keep your people happy (both employees and customers), you need to create value, you have to stay competitive. There's a lot of interplay.
History is a poor predictor. I think that, if you really looked at the common reasons for collapse throughout history you would see at the top of the pops, "Invasion by Mongols", and "Invasion by Puritans", and "Invasion by Bantu", and the like. I'm not worried about those, howsoever historically relevant they are. You list corruption and discontent. I'm also not worried about those....
What we really have, on the ground, are a few fundamental facts:
1. China (among others) is subsidizing the American economy on a grand scale.
2. America, China, Japan, and Europe are all facing recessionary demographic events. America and Europe are facing potential respective Brazilianization/Islamification.
3. The massive productive capacity (agricultural combines, robotics, and computers, for instance) compared with earlier economic depressions will mask the worst effects of your typical crisis such as mass refugees, starvation, etc.
There is, sorry for the cliche, a "whole new paradigm" in this instance. Nobody knows what is going to happen, because the facts are all historically unique.
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ADDENDUM: This is the movie I'm watching right now. See if you can spot all the differences between now and then (great movie if you haven't seen it)
History is a poor predictor because there is no history. History is a tool.
For instance, what is the real reason for the current crisis? There is a lot of explanations: goverenment (cheap money, urging to lend to poor), capitalism (complex derivates, greed), poor models (Blackswan), empty money (gold bugs). The same goes with attemps to solve the current crisis. There are too many ideas to count.
How do you expect better explanations of the past, if you hardly understand the events going on right now? Of course, the idea is that history was explained better and we can learn from it; the truth is that you end up with explaining reality with previous bad explanations, and your bad explanations will be used later...
1) Corruption in the government, leads to inefficiency and greed 2) Angry inhabitants, which leads to revolts and overthrowing of governments (caused by #1)
You would think of all things, these two wouldn't be a big deal. You would think most civilizations would fall because there were enemies ready to attack and take them over. But peace could be purchased at a price, giving you time to build your empire and compete. The most powerful force of all, the greed and corruption, has the power to bring a nation to its knees, as it has done in the past.
Take a look at history and let it speak to you. You'll see that the United States is a baby, it's no more than 230 years old. Many civilizations lasted 500 years at a time and made enormous scientific and mathematical contributions, so we're still very "young" by comparison. I feel like we're growing very arrogant and think we can't lose our superpower status. But that type of attitude is like the attitude of a CEO who gets complacent with his startup and no longer pushes for growth or progress. And we all know what happens to those companies.
*Final edit: Just wanted to say that on HN, I understand there's sort of a "don't read politics, it's too Diggish, let's just talk about startups." But I think there's a vast amount of knowledge that can be gained by looking at history and things like politics, as I don't see much difference in trying to run a country and run a company. You have to keep your people happy (both employees and customers), you need to create value, you have to stay competitive. There's a lot of interplay.