Okay, go out and buy puts on the S&P500 that are 6 months out and see how you do. I suspect the market will bounce and blow you out.
Rates are rising, but the yield curve isn't inverted yet, and the stock market is unlikely to continue this losing streak straight down. It normally doesn't happen that way. Emotions right now are very negative and a lot of people are going to make bets thats are exceedingly negative and in the 3-6 month short term period other people will make money off of them.
This does not feel to me like the start of the crash, possibly not even the top, although we might go sideways until the crash.
And there will be low interest rates again.
The point of the Fed raising interest rates on the low end is to tank the economy hard enough to eliminate wage inflation. Given the overhang of jobs over jobseekers (and likely the effects of COVID death and disability on the workforce and boomers retiring) this one is likely to be exceedingly painful.
When the Fed engineers the economy tanking that means that rates will get slashed again and >10 year bonds will not budge upwards.
What it will look like when long rates go up is that wage inflation will actually take hold consistently.
And low rates already blew up the dot com bubble in 2001 and the housing bubble in 2008. Read up on the Greenspan Fed.
They're going to jack rates up, tank the economy and then go back to ZIRP again.
Short rates != Long rates. Fed doesn't control long rates.
Rates are rising, but the yield curve isn't inverted yet, and the stock market is unlikely to continue this losing streak straight down. It normally doesn't happen that way. Emotions right now are very negative and a lot of people are going to make bets thats are exceedingly negative and in the 3-6 month short term period other people will make money off of them.
This does not feel to me like the start of the crash, possibly not even the top, although we might go sideways until the crash.
And there will be low interest rates again.
The point of the Fed raising interest rates on the low end is to tank the economy hard enough to eliminate wage inflation. Given the overhang of jobs over jobseekers (and likely the effects of COVID death and disability on the workforce and boomers retiring) this one is likely to be exceedingly painful.
When the Fed engineers the economy tanking that means that rates will get slashed again and >10 year bonds will not budge upwards.
What it will look like when long rates go up is that wage inflation will actually take hold consistently.
And low rates already blew up the dot com bubble in 2001 and the housing bubble in 2008. Read up on the Greenspan Fed.
They're going to jack rates up, tank the economy and then go back to ZIRP again.
Short rates != Long rates. Fed doesn't control long rates.