I'd also say that the strategic problem space is seldom located where the tactical problems space is that "solves" the strategic problem. And we can not know where or how far away the latter is. You see this a lot when you study the history of technology. What often happens is "Survivorship Bias" - you don't hear about all the other attempts that didn't work - so the historic narrative tries to form a story where "They knew all along" and that's seldom substantiated by actual history or facts.