In Jan2009 Windows had 95% marketshare across OSes. It’s now at 31% (accounting for iOS/Android). I would compare Windows to all OSes not just desktop OSes as I think mobile OSes do directly compete with Windows, I do know people who use iPads but not PCs.
I think Windows did well in the last year due to its strength in the WFH/education market and the convertible laptop market. If we look at stats from the last year we might think that traditional desktop PCs have a bright future but this is ignoring the broader picture. People are buying Windows PCs to do stuff like using desktop office applications that Microsoft seems to want to replace with rewritten web versions in the long run.
Windows faces a rock and a hard place sort of situation with its x86_64 dependence. It’s a long term liability but a transition to ARM or whatever would remove much of the competitive advantage Windows has. It’s solution to complete with Apple and it’s ARM convergence is to emulate ARM + Android and offer ARM windows alongside x86 windows which is a bit half-assed and disjointed.
Windows is also losing its software moat more and more every year regardless of what it does.
I mean, I think you can make a case for the future of WindowsNT but moves like the record levels of adware in Windows to me project a lack of confidence in the long term future of Windows given the indifference to poisoning the platform. It doesn’t make me go “Wow Microsoft is out to prove the haters wrong who underestimate the benefits of WinNT!”
I don't think a dependence on x86 is "a rock and a hard place". People consciously using Windows machines do it for pretty much one reason: they need compatibility with everything, no matter the cost. Switching to ARM would throw the baby out with the bathwater, and I don't think Microsoft is dumb enough to try that.
Which leaves us in a spot where MacOS seems forward-looking, whereas Windows seems to be grasping onto its legacy. How wise is it for any professional to invest their time into Windows if it seems to be headed towards inevitable decline?
This is a question I ask myself as somebody who has used Windows continuously since Win95. If it was just the x86 aspect I might be able to shrug it off as unimportant in the grand scheme of things, but when I see stories like this it really wears down my confidence in Windows.
Developers are going Mac and Linux, Schools are going Chromebooks and many adults are going phones. Companies, constantly being behind the curves are still stuck in MS land.
You have linked to the desktop market. Yes there rules MS, but the desktop market is being destroyed by the phone market where MS doesn't even have an offer.
I wouldn't say really destroyed by the phone market, but yes, I feel like the markets are getting more and more specialized. From what I've seen Windows machine still have two big markets: Companies (for various software compatibility / historical reasons) and Gaming. If I look at all the persons I know using Windows as their main OS, and that's quite a few, reason nb 1 is video games.
I'm hoping this comes to an end soon with Valve backing Proton due to the Steam Deck. I don't think I'll be upgrading to Windows 11 at any rate, I'll keep Win 10 as long as possible then migrate to Linux and live with the consequences if a minority of my games won't run on it.
I run Linux and Steam, but not the latest and greatest games. A lot of games run out of the box. A lot of the rest run if you tick the box for "yes, run this game anyway even though it's not officially compatible with Linux." The one major bug I've run into is that if I save my password, it doesn't start up - so I have to log into Steam every time.
I am not sure main OS even makes sense. My mum is not a gamer, 70% of her screen time is on her phone, but she does use a Windows PC from time to time. If you only looked at her desktop use her main OS would be Windows, but really it is Android.
https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide