Ok I think we’re agreement on some fundamentals here about market manipulation and monopolies etc.
Regarding your idea of a scheme to sneak up on and out-fox the market leader… by simply enacting a secret conspiracy amongst a quorum of suppliers:
I do love and admire the idea, I think it’s good stuff and could for example be an interesting movie.
(Actually- one with a similar plot was filmed in my home town when I was a child- some minor prospectors set up an arbitrage situation that turned a monopolistic evil gem dealer against himself… great stuff, and the mayor of my home town got a cameo in one scene).
Bit in reality - outside of fiction - as an actual serious method for unseating a monopoly, I don’t think the shot is even on the board. I don’t know enough laws to see which ones it would break, but I expect there are dozens. But without pondering legalities, fundamentally I see it failing because the conspiracy, among competing suppliers, is effectively a non-iterated prisoners dilemma. It’s better for any semi popular author/publisher to rat on the conspirators and secure a higher exclusive deal from A, than to be online with the B group.
But the first problem is that to fulfill the claim that the existence of such a remote possibility demonstrates that there is “not much of moat” is where I think it really falls down. If you have a technique for achieving a coup like this without getting out the wallet, then please by all means prove me wrong and simply step forward and achieve this scheme. Schemes that have the predicate “If only and not until everyone agrees to do “X” then it would benefit us all” - is generally not sufficient all by itself to bring about the agreement. It takes capital and lots of it.
Regarding your idea of a scheme to sneak up on and out-fox the market leader… by simply enacting a secret conspiracy amongst a quorum of suppliers:
I do love and admire the idea, I think it’s good stuff and could for example be an interesting movie.
(Actually- one with a similar plot was filmed in my home town when I was a child- some minor prospectors set up an arbitrage situation that turned a monopolistic evil gem dealer against himself… great stuff, and the mayor of my home town got a cameo in one scene).
Bit in reality - outside of fiction - as an actual serious method for unseating a monopoly, I don’t think the shot is even on the board. I don’t know enough laws to see which ones it would break, but I expect there are dozens. But without pondering legalities, fundamentally I see it failing because the conspiracy, among competing suppliers, is effectively a non-iterated prisoners dilemma. It’s better for any semi popular author/publisher to rat on the conspirators and secure a higher exclusive deal from A, than to be online with the B group.
But the first problem is that to fulfill the claim that the existence of such a remote possibility demonstrates that there is “not much of moat” is where I think it really falls down. If you have a technique for achieving a coup like this without getting out the wallet, then please by all means prove me wrong and simply step forward and achieve this scheme. Schemes that have the predicate “If only and not until everyone agrees to do “X” then it would benefit us all” - is generally not sufficient all by itself to bring about the agreement. It takes capital and lots of it.