Fortunately, there are a bunch of papers investigating this. The polar vortex is connected to a high pressure ridge off the west coast which, in warmer climates, is more likely to persist through the winter. This forces air up over the poles and then back down over the midwest and central US. Modeling is hard, but scientists do make compelling scientific claims about the relative frequency of these events in worlds with and without rising temperatures.
I get that. But the article that this article quotes, (the climate.gov one) makes the specific statement that there is no trend in the data.
It also discusses how the models break both ways: half the models predict stronger polar vortices, half less.
I'm firmly of the opinion that if the measurements and the models disagree, then the models are wrong. But that's probably me just being old-fashioned ;)
So if the anecdata and (half) the models say that these events are more common, but the actual measured data says there's no change, then surely we can agree that The Science says there's no change?
