Agree with others about Netflix not being appropriate for this list. Their success or failure in the marketplace will have little to do with the factors affecting the others on this list.
FWIW today is my last day at Google (after 10 years), so maybe that's informing what I'm about to write...
I don't have any particular pick from any of this list which is dominant over any other, but...
People keep bringing up Google Search still being leading and dominant... but Ads is Google's revenue source and product ... and that's only partially driven by search traffic. Even without Search, Google would still be the strongest presence in online advertising.
Google's share price is buoyed quarter after quarter by Google coming in with growth in ads revenue quarter after quarter.
I don't think it's controversial to speculate that some day that has to stop. It's just taking a long time to stop. All markets have a saturation.
When it does, that will have some kind of cascading effect on Google as a whole. Engineering retention, vulnerability to competition, etc.
I think a similar kind of dynamic applies to Facebook as well, with some differences around market segment etc.
At least a couple of these companies' success depends on their ability not so much to innovate or produce a better product but to retain the right talent to stop other people from innovating or producing a better product. And to continue to do what they're already doing at scale. A failure to hand out hundreds of thousands in RSUs per engineer every year and an end to siphoning talent straight out of universities and into their payroll.. and all of that will start to crumble.
FWIW today is my last day at Google (after 10 years), so maybe that's informing what I'm about to write...
I don't have any particular pick from any of this list which is dominant over any other, but...
People keep bringing up Google Search still being leading and dominant... but Ads is Google's revenue source and product ... and that's only partially driven by search traffic. Even without Search, Google would still be the strongest presence in online advertising.
Google's share price is buoyed quarter after quarter by Google coming in with growth in ads revenue quarter after quarter.
I don't think it's controversial to speculate that some day that has to stop. It's just taking a long time to stop. All markets have a saturation.
When it does, that will have some kind of cascading effect on Google as a whole. Engineering retention, vulnerability to competition, etc.
I think a similar kind of dynamic applies to Facebook as well, with some differences around market segment etc.
At least a couple of these companies' success depends on their ability not so much to innovate or produce a better product but to retain the right talent to stop other people from innovating or producing a better product. And to continue to do what they're already doing at scale. A failure to hand out hundreds of thousands in RSUs per engineer every year and an end to siphoning talent straight out of universities and into their payroll.. and all of that will start to crumble.