The leading indicator I'd use to analyze how strong these companies will be in a decade is: how much of their bull market zeitgeist is based around nebulous technology ideas that don't exist, and that investors really don't understand. Its the "hope" factor; if investors are bullish on promises about future tech, it means they aren't bullish about their current tech; and history is the best indicator of the future.
The three big zeitgeists right now are: AR/VR, Metaverse, and Crypto. By this measure:
Amazon is very strong. This is a company that achieved unreal fulfillment numbers during a world-stopping global pandemic that brought their peers to their knees. Yet they only control single-digit percentages of US commerce. They're a company that doesn't just make empty promises about next-gen tech like drone delivery or same-day fulfillment or "supply chain hardening"; they deliver (literally) and are deploying this tech today.
Google is strong. Google is the ghost in the information machine. Ten years ago everyone was so concerned about how competitors could disrupt their control in search, maps, video, etc. No one has. If they have eyes, they will find a way to monetize it. Combine that with their slow but methodical push into B2B, between Workspace & Cloud, and I'm not concerned about them.
Netflix is stable. Piracy will be an issue as these platforms shard more and more good content between different subscriptions, but I also think its a self-fixing problem. We're in a period of striation, and we'll soon enter a period of coalescing; Netflix & Disney+ are very well positioned to survive and continue to do well.
Apple is weak. iPhone is flat. Mac is flat. iPad is flat. Their biggest wins over the past decade have been on the accessory side (Watch & AirPods). AR can either be a "metaverse platform", which will stumble to see "next-iPhone success" because Apple doesn't play well with other children and loves their gardens, or it could be "another accessory", which will also stumble because that's not a trillion dollar business.
Facebook is very weak. The metaverse stuff will probably pay off to some degree, but their biggest gain will be on the hardware side. They just won't be able to produce the same kind of open digital universe that video-game native competitors in this space (like Epic) have spent years preparing for. They aren't a video game company, and that's the skillset this takes.
The three big zeitgeists right now are: AR/VR, Metaverse, and Crypto. By this measure:
Amazon is very strong. This is a company that achieved unreal fulfillment numbers during a world-stopping global pandemic that brought their peers to their knees. Yet they only control single-digit percentages of US commerce. They're a company that doesn't just make empty promises about next-gen tech like drone delivery or same-day fulfillment or "supply chain hardening"; they deliver (literally) and are deploying this tech today.
Google is strong. Google is the ghost in the information machine. Ten years ago everyone was so concerned about how competitors could disrupt their control in search, maps, video, etc. No one has. If they have eyes, they will find a way to monetize it. Combine that with their slow but methodical push into B2B, between Workspace & Cloud, and I'm not concerned about them.
Netflix is stable. Piracy will be an issue as these platforms shard more and more good content between different subscriptions, but I also think its a self-fixing problem. We're in a period of striation, and we'll soon enter a period of coalescing; Netflix & Disney+ are very well positioned to survive and continue to do well.
Apple is weak. iPhone is flat. Mac is flat. iPad is flat. Their biggest wins over the past decade have been on the accessory side (Watch & AirPods). AR can either be a "metaverse platform", which will stumble to see "next-iPhone success" because Apple doesn't play well with other children and loves their gardens, or it could be "another accessory", which will also stumble because that's not a trillion dollar business.
Facebook is very weak. The metaverse stuff will probably pay off to some degree, but their biggest gain will be on the hardware side. They just won't be able to produce the same kind of open digital universe that video-game native competitors in this space (like Epic) have spent years preparing for. They aren't a video game company, and that's the skillset this takes.