Seems to me like it correlates with economy more than anything else. The best American (and to a lesser extent western european) programmers are making six figure salaries working on world class products and/or getting funding for their own startups. The best Russian and Chinese programmers are doing ... Google Code Jam.
I wouldn't be sure of that. Check out the country distribution of Google's Code Jam participants: http://www.go-hero.net/jam/11/regions