> In the coming months and years, countries will have to return to a gold standard...
Care to put a number of years on that?
I asked you for a concrete prediction, so I'll give you mine. On January 1, 2040, the number of countries that have adopted the gold standard since 2021 will be either 0 or 1.
I agree, I’m willing to bet the OP all of my current savings, as well as all of my future savings over the next 20 years that it will be 0 or 1 countries on the gold standard in 2040.
There is no way any government is going to let the value of their currency be tied to how much metal is extracted from the ground, let’s be real.
A major economy defaulting is possible (I put no limits on the ability of Congress to bungle things). But why do you think that the response would be going back to the gold standard? (Even if you think that's the answer, why do you think Congress will think it's the answer?)
Because the economies are interlinked and so a major economy defaulting starts a domino process where almost all debt goes into default. The currency of any country is legal note that says that country will pay that. What happens when the country can't? And other countries are in a similar situation?
Let's say that you're wealthy and bought three houses for three families and they all owe you that money. You don't want a bunch of paper in return, you want to get the value back that you invested. How? If all currencies have lost their value, where will you turn? You'll want something that can't be printed.
So? If someone can't pay me, it doesn't matter how much I want my value back, I'm not going to get it. That's what happens with bad investments - you lose your money.
And if a country can't pay me in fiat currency, how in the world are they going to be able to pay me in gold?
The assets don't disappear. Gold doesn't disappear. People will still want to trade. They'll have assets and want different assets. Barter stinks. Countries will have surplus grain but want, say, tech. They can use a stable currency, say the Swiss Franc. Or they can use a scarce resource with a historical use as a currency, like gold.
And defaulting doesn't mean you get off, scott free. When you default and go bankrupt, there's an effort to recoup losses. Germany was encumbered with huge debt from World War One and went into full hyperinflation and eventually paid it off... in 2010.
Please, read that essay. It's fascinating and talks about things much better than I can.
> A major economy defaulting is possible (I put no limits on the ability of Congress to bungle things)
Arguably, even maximal Congressional bungling (at least, absent positive action to force a default, which doesn't seem politically possible) won't make a default necessary, as there are several no-default courses possible without Cobgressional action (“mint the coin”, ignore debt limit due to conflict with mandated fiscal actions, ignore debt limit as unconstitutional)
I'm not a soothsayer; I'm not trying to time anything. I'm saying the steering wheel and pedals have come off the car and it's going 80 and so in the coming months and years, this won't end well.
It seems to me that the discussion is the car, not what day of the week it will hit the wall.
And my answer is, no, the car won't hit the wall - not in any amount of time that would make it reasonable to conclude that your prediction was correct.
(Or at least, we won't hit that wall. There are other walls that we are likely to hit before 2040, but the gold standard isn't one.)
Care to put a number of years on that?
I asked you for a concrete prediction, so I'll give you mine. On January 1, 2040, the number of countries that have adopted the gold standard since 2021 will be either 0 or 1.