"An unbiased sample would be clustered around the dotted line: a beat whose population is about 40% Black would have about 40% of its police stops be of Blacks".
Is this the case? In terms of murders I think it was something like 30 - 1 in terms of per capita likelihood of a suspect being black vs asian for example. Adding in gender / age it got even worse - ie, very few asian women gunning down folks on the street.
I couldn't find good stats on this based on a quick look, but it might be worth it to evaluate if there are different rates of murder by race / age / gender when doing these types of articles -> I wouldn't be surprised if their WAS racial bias, but it would be helpful to have a bit more context perhaps.
You're not reading it wrong. That's actually a low value for the black share of murders; it's often above 50%.
The per capita rate of murder commission for blacks is about 8 times the general rate. It's true in the US, with its legacy of slavery, and also in England, with its equally bad legacy of slavery.
Or something.
EDIT: Actually, you are reading it wrong. That's 3,299 murders of whites, not 3,299 murders by whites.
The table shows 2,948 murders committed by whites ("Race of offender"), vs 3,218 murders committed by blacks.
It should be noted that table counts Hispanics as white (as does the 76% of population you cite). It has separate columns for if the offender is Hispanic.
Black 8228
Hispanic 575
Unknown 462
White 107
Asian/Other119
--------------
Total 9491
Per 100K
Black (non-hispanic) 8,000
Hispanic 575
White (non-hispanic) 89
This is something like a 100-1 difference? Can these numbers be right - I was having some trouble finding good data from Oakland though I know they look at this closely.
That's pretty common, in my experience. People read "suspect" and hear "guilty". Reagan's Attorney General Ed Meese once said in an interview, "you don't have many suspects who are innocent of a crime. That's contradictory. If a person is innocent of a crime, then he is not a suspect".
As best I can tell, the average person interprets "innocent until proven guilty" to mean something like, well, you can't put him in jail until he's convicted, but once he's caught, that's just the court system.
It's a well-known fact that the US criminal justice system disproportionately arrests, prosecutes, and imprisons Black and Hispanic Americans, and has for a while. I'm surprised to find that my expectations of the HN community were too high.
Is this the case? In terms of murders I think it was something like 30 - 1 in terms of per capita likelihood of a suspect being black vs asian for example. Adding in gender / age it got even worse - ie, very few asian women gunning down folks on the street.
I couldn't find good stats on this based on a quick look, but it might be worth it to evaluate if there are different rates of murder by race / age / gender when doing these types of articles -> I wouldn't be surprised if their WAS racial bias, but it would be helpful to have a bit more context perhaps.