It's almost impossible to predict this kind of even for a a very simple reason - markets not only react on objective events, but also react on expectations and fear/greed.
One of my favourite simplification is weather forecast - currently feather doesn't depend on our expectations of it and predicting it is already extremely difficult task. Now you can imagine if weather would factor in what we expect it to be - and forecasting would be even more complicated.
That's said, it may be important or unimportant event, however noone has capacity to predict it (although in the hindsight there will be a lot of those who will brag that they had seen it coming).
One of my favourite simplification is weather forecast - currently feather doesn't depend on our expectations of it and predicting it is already extremely difficult task. Now you can imagine if weather would factor in what we expect it to be - and forecasting would be even more complicated.
That's said, it may be important or unimportant event, however noone has capacity to predict it (although in the hindsight there will be a lot of those who will brag that they had seen it coming).