Deigin has said explicitly elsewhere that if SARS-CoV-2 arose from a lab accident, he believes it arose from manipulation of a novel, unpublished virus collected by the WIV from nature. This makes any arguments based on distance from existing, published viruses irrelevant.
RaTG13 was such a virus (collected 2013, published post-pandemic), but it's very unlikely to be the ancestor for the reasons that you note. No one outside the WIV (and thus, no one beyond the physical control of the Chinese government) knows what other viruses they had in their freezer or database. Deigin has recently published an article claiming to have discovered a novel coronavirus in contamination of agricultural samples sequenced at the same facility:
To be clear, the new virus that he "discovered" absolutely is not an ancestor of SARS-CoV-2, and he absolutely isn't claiming that is; but it's (more) evidence that the WIV had unpublished coronaviruses.
The WIV took their database of viruses down from public access in September 2019. They say this was due to repeated hacking attempts. They haven't restored access, or provided their database in another format (e.g., a dump on a flash drive) that obviously presents no information security risk. Do you believe their claimed reason for taking it down? If not, why do you think they're lying?
Thanks. That comment doesn't address the database, though. Do you believe their stated reason for taking it down? If not, why do you think they're lying?
Hi, I have no way to verify if that is the true reason, but also no reason to doubt it.
I will say DDOS attacks on scientific databases are not that uncommon. This is the same reason that a lot of scientific publication data are now hosted by the publisher and not the scientist.
It's rarely actually a malicious "hacker," though. Usually it's some grad student somewhere pulling a really crappily made wget script out and accidentally using all the bandwidth.
Scientists aren't actually that great of programmers, yours truly included. Have I done this before with an independently hosted database? I can neither confirm not deny. Lol.
But seriously I have no idea. I get why you find this suspicious, but to me it is extremely circumstantial and I can think of a lot of mundane reasons for it.
For one, I don't know that the translation of DDOS and hacker or idiot script kiddie is nuanced enough between Mandarin and English.
This is probably the biggest database of bat-origin coronaviruses in the world, and we're in the middle of a bat-origin coronavirus pandemic. Even ignoring the question of SARS-CoV-2's origins, shouldn't this be of great scientific interest? (If it isn't, then what was the point of the research in the first place?)
Perhaps I could believe that a small group of virologists would have trouble keeping a website running, and that just by chance they gave up right around when a pandemic likely first entered humans, of the same type of virus that they studied in the same town--coincidences do happen. But now that this is a matter of international importance, do you really believe that no one in China has the technology to make this information available in any form? That seems impossible to me; so why don't they want to?
I appreciate the opportunity to discuss, and I do believe that you're sincerely convinced that the chance that virological research could result in such an accident is negligibly small. With respect, I'd suggest that your attitude seems typical of the profession, and that that's exactly when the worst accidents happen. Engineers are constantly taught that their work may bring catastrophe, and that it's their job to consider and manage every conceivable way that it could. I get the feeling that virologists aren't, perhaps because there are fewer past disasters to point to; though with the 1977 flu pandemic as a warning, that's not a great excuse.
Certainly this is unlike e.g. the 1977 flu pandemic, whose genetic sequence provided strong evidence that it was an accidental release of something derived from a stored 1950 sample. Even so, at the time the WHO said "laboratory contamination can be excluded because the laboratories concerned either had never kept H1N1 virus or had not worked with it for a long time":
And nothing requires accidents to happen the same way each time. If SARS-CoV-2 was a lab accident, then it's probably an accident involving a novel bat-origin coronavirus collected from nature. The WIV probably had the biggest program sampling such viruses in the world, and that's the database they made unavailable.
Why do you think that database is unavailable now? The WIV's stated reason could possibly explain why they took it down in the first place (though it would be a spectacular coincidence), but it doesn't explain why they can't bring it back up.
Note that I asked this in my previous comment, and you chose to ignore it, instead responding to the less substantive comment from another user. You likewise ignored my original question about the database until I asked it twice. You didn't discuss the possibility of an accident involving a novel, unpublished virus (which you consider the most likely lab accident scenario, I believe correctly) until others brought it up.
I don't think that's malicious, but that's not a comforting pattern. Virologists are supposed to be the experts, so they should be the ones presenting (and refuting where applicable) the strongest and most likely scenarios for a lab accident. Instead, they (and you) seem entirely focused on defending the profession, refuting easy and wrong arguments, and waiting to see how long it takes adjacent non-specialists to learn enough to discover the harder ones. You then dismiss their arguments, because they (David Relman, Alina Chan, Richard Ebright, I assume Marc Lipsitch too; the list is getting long) are mere molecular biologists or epidemiologists or whatever, and not specialist virologists.
Regardless of what we eventually learn about the origin of this pandemic, that's not the behavior of a profession that can be trusted to regulate itself, and I believe the world is realizing that now. It would be unfortunate if important virological research gets banned because the regulations are drafted by half-informed outsiders; but if virologists themselves don't seriously engage with the possibility that their work just killed 2.9M people, that's what will happen.
Of course that's not all virologists. Étienne Decroly has been pushing quite openly for an investigation of a possible lab accident, though mostly in French-language media and perhaps you'll find something wrong with his resume too.
And just so you don't miss it: Why do you think that database is unavailable now? Please feel free to ignore everything I've written except that question.
Hi you'll see elsewhere that I was very open about the fact that I, too, think an open and honest investigation from third parties is necessary. Seriously just search this page for "independent" or "investigation." I have said that several times on this post, and in the OP I linked as well. I am 100% in support of that and always have been. I just don't think the outcome will be conclusive, but I hope it will maybe prevent some of the damage this theory is causing.
I don't have time to address the rest of your comment I'm sorry, I have already sunk so much time into this post that I should have spent studying. This is the exam I have in 3 weeks: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USMLE_Step_1 Pay particular attention to the section marked "effect on matching residency." I never should have responded or brought myself into this post in the first place.
Sorry, but I need to exit now. I hope you find the certainty you're looking for, either way. I hope you find the solace in "holding virologists to account" that you are looking for, although I'm not sure it will happen the way you are suggesting.
Then it seems like from a policy standpoint, you actually agree with Alina Chan, David Relman, Richard Ebright, etc. that a forensic investigation (i.e., an investigation that doesn't rely entirely on trust of the people providing information, similar to a financial audit) of the WIV's samples and records is necessary? That would imply you disagree with the Chinese government and with the WHO team's report, whose conclusion that lab origin was "extremely unlikely" was generally taken as meaning no further study of that scenario was required.
In any case, I certainly have work that I should be doing too, though lower-stakes than your exam. I'm not looking for solace or blame here; I just don't want another pandemic. Certainly this one might have been caused by exotic wildlife trading, or guano collection by farmers, or other nonscientific activity, and those activities should be restricted. But unless and until the WIV's collection and lab manipulation of novel potential pandemic pathogens can be confidently excluded as the cause, I don't see why anyone would permit that work either.
I'd privately guess that the Chinese government has already imposed such restrictions, and that while Shi's group may still publish occasionally for the sake of appearances their volume of risky research will fall sharply--the CCP doesn't want to lose face, but they don't want another pandemic either. Of course there's no way to confirm or refute that prediction but to wait and see.
Final note, I see that you wrote your "CoVID-19 did not come from the Wuhan Institute of Virology" post about a year ago. At the time, I would have mostly agreed with you; but since then no proximal animal host has been found, and quite a lot of Chinese-government obstruction has been. It's uncomfortable to adjust a position when you've previously made a strong statement; but that's a lot better than getting locked in to a position that you adopted based on less evidence than is available today.
Anyways, good luck on your exam. I'll continue to do everything I can to ensure that my group's designs don't explode or catch fire, and I hope you'll do the same with the risk that your (prospective) group starts a pandemic.
That was a great writeup that I enjoyed reading a lot.
It dumbed it down just enough that I didn't feel completely lost while still being deep enough.
Now the only problem is that the people that spew Asian hate and call it Kung Flu are likely not the people who read 34 page virology for dummies documents.
That's correct. The RdRp was published as RaBtCoV/4991 in 2016, and that's how the link to the Mojiang mine became known. The first publication on SARS-CoV-2 didn't mention that, instead referring to the virus by its new name RaTG13, but others made the connection:
Of course that's not evidence of anything malicious; the renaming and failure to reference might have just been inadvertent. But it's still a bit weird, and it unquestionably shows at least a 2.5 year delay between sampling and publishing even a fragment of the genome.
That delay isn't evidence of anything malicious either. Research takes time, and any group in any discipline has a backlog of unpublished work. The WIV didn't stop sampling in 2013 though, and no one outside China's physical control knows what else might be in their collection.
RaTG13 was simply uninteresting before the pandemic. It only became worth writing a full paper on after SARS-CoV-2 was discovered. When they wrote a paper about it, they also gave it a more memorable name.
> The WIV didn't stop sampling in 2013 though, and no one outside China's physical control knows what else might be in their collection.
They upload sequences to Genbank (just like they did with RaTG13, years before the pandemic), they have international collaborators, and they give talks at conferences. Tons of people know what they work on and what they have in their collection.
> Tons of people know what they work on and what they have in their collection.
If that's true, then why has the WIV removed public access from their database? It serves only to remove a valuable scientific resource, and to cast suspicion on China; so why would they do such a thing? Do you genuinely believe that even with the international importance of the topic, no one in China can figure out how to keep a simple database-backed website up?
And again, Deigin et al. report assembly of the genome of a novel coronavirus from contamination in other published reads sequenced in the same facility:
As far as I can tell, this virus wasn't previously known outside the WIV. Am I mistaken? I emphasize again that their novel virus is relevant not because it's an ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 (it's not), but because if the WIV had one unpublished virus, it gets harder to claim it's ridiculous that they might have had others.
RaTG13 was such a virus (collected 2013, published post-pandemic), but it's very unlikely to be the ancestor for the reasons that you note. No one outside the WIV (and thus, no one beyond the physical control of the Chinese government) knows what other viruses they had in their freezer or database. Deigin has recently published an article claiming to have discovered a novel coronavirus in contamination of agricultural samples sequenced at the same facility:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.01533
To be clear, the new virus that he "discovered" absolutely is not an ancestor of SARS-CoV-2, and he absolutely isn't claiming that is; but it's (more) evidence that the WIV had unpublished coronaviruses.
The WIV took their database of viruses down from public access in September 2019. They say this was due to repeated hacking attempts. They haven't restored access, or provided their database in another format (e.g., a dump on a flash drive) that obviously presents no information security risk. Do you believe their claimed reason for taking it down? If not, why do you think they're lying?