Exactly. I don't understand why it is so unpopular to ask this obvious question?
The numbers are falling all over the western world; probably because the policy response is largely same and maybe also because the virus' natural cycle is at the same stage.
Given how much further Israel is, one would have expected it to stick much more out in the statistics.
1 - There is a delay. While now we have more and more vaccinated people, much of the current cases in the hospital got infected before that.
2 - It changes from community to community but in general we have many people that are really not "disciplined". Either they believe coronovirus does not exist or it won't get them or that god will save them or the herd immunity is high enough (when it isn't)... excuses all over
3 - The vaccinations are not evenly distributed in the population (for lack of demand, supply is there). While in some places you have 70% in other communities you have 2%. (and those with 2% act like there's no coronavirus, see point 2)
> While in some places you have 70% in other communities you have 2%. (and those with 2% act like there's no coronavirus, see point 2)
I've come to notice this over the last year. We now effectively live in two completely diverged realities. In one, coronavirus is a serious danger that affects our behavior and dominates every aspect of life, where we follow the news of new vaccines and declining case numbers with gratitude and relief, hoping to god that life can return to normal some day. In the other reality, COVID is just a flu. Maybe you might get it but it's not a big deal. Life goes on as normal and you are happily taking advantage of deals on travel, low crowds, and you get annoyed at being reminded to wear your mask. Meeting with friends, going to church, eating at restaurants. All of this is fine because you've convinced yourself it's no big deal.
It's bizarre, and it has torn many of my personal relationships apart. I'm not sure how we ever fix this.
I'm somewhere in between. For myself, because I'm young and healthy, I'm not overly concerned about catching it myself.
However, I can also appreciate that in aggregate, the medical impact is higher than a normal flu. Hospitals have been overwhelmed (in Italy most famously, but here in Iceland it was also dicey for a bit around the peak). In that sense, I see it as being socially irresponsible not to take low-cost/low-effort preventative measures (mask/sanitizer).
Where it gets murkier for me is in the shutdown of businesses. I'm not sure I really have an opinion one way or the other on that. On one hand I can appreciate it sucks hard for those impacted. On the other, Iceland's second wave originated from an outbreak in a bar, so some kind of precautions are clearly needed. On the other other hand, at that time life was back to normal, so even normal precautions were completely ignored, so maybe we could have kept businesses open but just with precautions, which is the path we're taking now which seems to be working so far, though right now we're quite strict on international travel.
And though I've been drawing observations from anecdotes in Iceland, Iceland's numbers have never been very high because there just aren't that many people. Maybe the optimal approach is different in a higher-density location like New York.
IMO the solution to merging the realities is to humbly admit although we have statistics, none of us have all the answers. There is no one-size-fits-all solution.
Also, IMO, relationships are far more important than politics, especially politics as transitory as pandemic response. I argue with family about our differing perceptions of the pandemic, but at the end of the day I still believe they're doing the best they can and how wrong I think they are about some things is totally irrelevant to the relationship.
I'm so surprised that the "just a flu" crowd has endured for so long. Deaths are rare, but at least among the people I know who've had it, severe reactions are common place. Plenty of people consider this the worst illness they've had in their life to this point, many considered hospitalizing themselves, and I know people who have been saddled with fatigue, muscle soreness, and shortness of breath months later. Those that have had mild symptoms count themselves lucky. Surely at this point, everyone knows someone who has had a bad bout of covid. Of course, people don't necessarily advertise that they've had covid since generally they get it by doing something irresponsible and regrettable in hindsight, so maybe that's why some people lack this context.
Exactly my point. I don't know enough to make a value judgement one way or the other, simply pointing out how shocking it is when you come into contact with someone from an alternate reality to your own.
> Either they believe coronovirus does not exist or it won't get them or that god will save them
You can take case of yeshivas (religious schools): some have 80% of infected and recovered students. So when authorities come to the head of the school with a story about deadly virus, they don't understand each other. And examples of 90 years old elders dying from COVID-19 are meet with question "What you expected them to do instead at this age?"
There an extra consideration to add here perhaps: the US experienced a post Christmas and New Year spike. That would be less pronounced in Israel where the vast majority does not celebrate Christmas and takes the New Year less seriously. (Hanukkah, the Jewish holiday of the similar time was earlier this year. And although some Arabs celebrate Christmas, many others are Muslim and do not)
It's not that hard to think of reasons why, even as effective vaccinations go up, deaths/cases may not decline in perfect symmetry. For example, certain groups may start caring less once the most vulnerable have been vaccinated, restrictions may be eased as more people are vaccinated, certain groups may be less likely to want vaccinations so a local epidemic occurs... etc.
The numbers are falling all over the western world; probably because the policy response is largely same and maybe also because the virus' natural cycle is at the same stage.
Probably the latter. Mortality doesn't seem to be affected by (covid specific) policy:
Interesting. In Luxembourg at least you can see the clear seasonal variation and also the enforcement of stricter lockdowns pretty much 1:1 in death rates and infection rates, accounting for the ~2-3 week delay in infection intervals.
... the curves look pretty similar to that of many other countries. There was apparently (according to Wikipedia) one between Nov 23rd and Dec 15th but that appears to have made no real difference, in fact, numbers per million were stable during those dates when they had previously been falling.
The numbers are falling all over the western world; probably because the policy response is largely same and maybe also because the virus' natural cycle is at the same stage.
Given how much further Israel is, one would have expected it to stick much more out in the statistics.
But it does not?