It will not happen in Europe soon. The vaccine will be sold by manufacturers to highest bidder, that’s no surprise. And with the European ordering disaster as an adult I’ll get vaccinated best case in 2022.
I am not to sure you have that right. Europe's mistake was to spread vaccine orders with manufacturers without ordering enough from each.
For Germany the numbers publicly reported have gotten more conrete the last few weeks. While there are only few doses for the first quater (about 18mio for 9 mio people ~ 11% of the population), in the second quarter there will be lots of doses delivered. Confirmed numbers are, that doses for over 40 million people will be delivered in the second quarter (including some one time vaccines from Johnson&Johnson, as also with them there were contracts).
Together with the 9 mio from the first, that is 49mio people (~61%) in the first half of 2021.
So while it started slow (as was to expect), numbers will start rising soon.
These numbers were only for Germany, I don't know exactly how this reflects for Europe, but as all orders were made Europe-wide, I guess this is similar for the whole EU, at least that was the whole point for having a Europe-wide strategy.
Spreading orders across manufacturers was actually quite prudent. Sanofi's mRNA vaccine is delayed. We have no reaon to believe that is was impossible that the same could have happened to Biontech / Pfizer and / or Moderna.
Overall the EU ordered 4+ doses per inhabitant, incl. minors. That seems to be enough. Single sourcing is never good. In case of vaccines it would mean that a) vaccines are delayed b) manufacturing issues happen. Also ordering enough from each manufacturer would have blown their manufacturing capacites. The necessary capacity increases woud just have further delayed deliveries, as the Pfizer plant in Belgium shows quite clearly.
And yes, as far as I understood the AZ contract, alocations are the same for each EU memeber state. Proportionally of course, Germany will get more doses in absolute numbers than, say, Luxembourg.
Yea but that's for first dosage given until end of June. That's still 4.5 months away. A long time considering thousands of infections and hundreds of deaths.
Maybe paying a bit more would have been more intelligent (see Israel) than negotiating for months on end.
Sure. It could also be that the end of the second quarter only means that the doses are delivered on 30th of June and that actual vaccination will be a little later than that.
And yes, 4.5 month is a long time, i just wanted to point out that until the end of the summer probably everybody who wants to will have a chance to be vaccinated - at least in Germany. That is though if the organization of actually vaccinating people keeps up with that.
The problem was, as usual, EU countries' nationalism and wealth disparity. Macron insisted that the EU not order more doses from Germany's Biontech than from French Sanofi. So far so usual, but the worst problem were the Eastern European countries - they insisted on also keeping AstraZeneca with their 1.78€ a dose on board because well they are poor and can't afford more.
The EU bet pretty heavily on AstraZeneca and that's not the Eastern European countries fault. The EU already ordered in August, while they only ordered from Biontech and Moderna in November (11th and 25th). It wasn't wrong to buy AstraZeneca, it's cheap and more importantly easy to handle. The failure was to bet so much on it. AstraZeneca wasn't something that was odered as well, it was and still is THE vaccine that's intended for the largest part of the population.
Money also can't be an issue, the EU has come up with 750B euros to fight the economical impact of the pandemics. That was already in April or so. For the vaccine the EU only had around 2.7B available for most of 2020. The UK alone spent more than that, the US over 10B$. The worst thing: 2B of those 2.7B euros were simply repurposed from an already existing fund. That means the EU states only had to come up with 700M euros together in total. Even ignoring all of that, the vaccine is so cheap compared to the costs of lockdowns (and lives) that the price simply does not matter much. Ironically the price they got is the part the EU is especially proud of and EU politicans are quick to point out that Israel payed twice as much per dose.
What they don't say that the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine's price depends on the amount and delivery date. So you could actually pay more to get the vaccine sooner. It seems the EU chose not to do that because they felt good enough with AstraZeneca (they were supposed to start production in October). Unfortunately that information isn't public so we don't know for sure. But this would both explain why the EU didn't expect significant shipments from Non-AZ vaccines in the first quarter and why they got it cheaper.
> So far so usual, but the worst problem were the Eastern European countries - they insisted on also keeping AstraZeneca with their 1.78€ a dose
I thought AZ was €5 a dose.
Well, as for EE countries, the largest by population size (EE country that is in EU) is Poland and they (we, I live here) ordered from multiple sources, and AZ isn't the largest one (J&J is, followed closely by Pfizer):
Janssen Pharmaceutica NV / Johnson&Johnson 16,98 mln
Pfizer / BioNTec 16,74 mln
Astra Zeneca 16 mln
CureVac 5,65 mln
Moderna 6,69 mln
The biggest issue for me is that I don't think I'll be able to select which vaccine I want to use, I don't like the AZ inferior efficacy compared to mRNA vaccines, not to mention how it handles the SA version of COVID-19 virus.
Unfortunately the EU still communicates there is no problem with the procurement but only with evil pharmaceutical companies not delivering as promised. There will not be any remorse.
It really must hurt them that even the heavily criticized politicians Johnson, Netanyahu and Trump did a much better job with procurement than the EU.
In that particular interview, I tend to agree. However I've seen/read multiple other interviews and talk shows where EU politicians talk quite differently. They may admit some general mistakes (without naming one) but still dispute each and every critic.
In one talk show for example a representative of the European Commission at least mentioned twice that in Africa even less people got vaccinated than in the EU. Like this would be the frame of reference.
Even if the EU had made different deals, doubling the price won't make production capacity appear out of nowhere. The UK and Israel can get vaccines in such large quantities because they are comparatively small countries. The EU might outbid those countries, but the gain of displacing them, while costing a lot, will distribute among the huge european population and thus will only shorten the wait period for individuals a little.
Yes, maybe the EU could have tried working harder in ensuring they produce vaccines in enough quantities. This has cost real lives. That being said, a rushed and faulty vaccine is extremely harmful for public health as well, as it breeds anti-vaxxers and the time the next pandemic comes around, people will distrust the vaccine.
There was time. I work in manufacturing, we plan factories years in advance of manufacturing start. Abandoned biotech factory cost is a drop in the ocean compared to weekly lockdown cost. Why countries failed here? If I would do such crap professionally, shelves of electronics stores would be empty.
There were/are multiple vaccine candidates with different production needs. How do you decide which factories to build? I think there are a lot of unrealistic expectations when it comes to these highly sophisticated vaccines. It's not comparable to your average electronics product.
Build 10 damn factories if needed. For biotech it is cheap - hundreds of millions, not billion range as for semiconductor. As a reminder - saving Lufthansa alone consumed €9B: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52801131
Sure, and it is the mney that is building these factories? You need people, you need certification. And that is once the building and equipment is their. No dea why people always ignore the time aspect of supply chains. Having more capacity in 4 months isn't any good now. Nor is it n 4 months when existing capacites are suffcient in 4 months anyway.
And they are using new site, Biontech in Marburg (a reporposed existing facility if memory serves well), Sanofi will be ready in summer to produce the Biontech vaccine as well. These things take time, rushing them is never a good idea.
All of them. Or at least all of the different kinds of factories (mRNA, vector, live vaccine) for the most promising candidates. If there is a shortage of something, force production, apply imminent domain, force cooperation. War against Corona should be handled like a war, not like a toilet paper shortage.
In a lot of regards the "vaccine shortage" (hint: there is no real shortage, we are currently just in the early ramp up phase of production) should exaclty be treated like the toilet paper shortage.
Not really, because toilet paper was a different issue, there was plenty of supply. With vaccines I want the 300 million doses made in the US the day it is approved. Then nothing for three weeks and then make the booster all at once . That isn't possible, but it is what we want. (As each country approves repeat for them)
Note that even if a vaccine/drug/etc. gets approval, people are still looking for side effects. The approval process is designed to catch and document such side effects, but only once you give it to millions of people you find out about the side effects that are more rare. Also, due to the extremely sped up approval process, you know only little about any long term side effects.
Ideally you spread the doses over a few weeks or months so that you can stop the vaccinations should any issues arise. I'm not saying the current distribution is fine, it's far too slow. But not even Israel has vaccinated everyone in a single day, nor would that be a god idea.
This is btw also the way Google play distributes updates. Instead of every user getting the update right away, they first give it to a small group, then that group increases gradually in numbers.
A shortage is a is a mismatch between demand and supply. When you are in the ramp up of production, the art is to match these. That means a closely monitored planning covering both aspects. Which is exactly what was done with toilet paper.
Done right, one could even get away with not reserving the second shot from the first deliveries. Another parallel between toilet paper and vaccines is the sudden demand spikes, read additional orders from the EU in January, that resulted in reduced short term availablity.
Absolutely agree. They should have started such projects back in February/March 2020. But while small countries can obtain quicker deliveries by ordering better, for large countries this venue is not open as manufacturing capacities are limited. My point was that looking at the problem in terms of how you ordered is misguided. Instead you should look at it in terms of how you have failed to help the manufacturers to expand production capacities.
You are an expert with hand-on experience. Here decisions were done by career politicians, who are utterly clueless in any hard science, and basically often have only one skill mastered - the skill of selling themselves to population to get voted in. Hence the results.
Electronics manufacturing is very different from pharmaceutical manufacturing. Decision-makers can't just magically hand-wave the problem away and if politicians were to invest money in building up the infrastructure for all possible vaccine solutions, they would later face huge criticism for wasting public finance on all the potential vaccines that didn't pan out. I'm still hugely impressed that we have any vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 just under a year after the virus was discovered.
We don't have vaccines thanks to politicians making mass production of vaccines a top national priority, we have them despite politicians, thanks to private companies and basic research done on universities.
Maybe your specific country handled things around covid great, but not the place I come from, not its neighbors, not the place I live in currently, and not its current neighbors (covered some 15 european states by this in east & west/south).
Money spent on vaccine infrastructure would be absolutely nothing, especially when pooled by few/many states together, compared to havoc covid is wreaking on economies and still will in incoming months, no way to avoid it. Plus the small benefit of actually saving many lives should also hold some, not only political capital.
