Step 5 is then that an open, federated and/or decentralized protocol gets developed, and it either gets traction or dies.
Unfortunately, for many such communication channels, we are still only in the middle of this step 5, and we have no idea how it ends. E.g. Matrix for chat, ForgeFed for source hosting services, PeerTube for videos, or various other (mostly ActivityPub-based) efforts.
I wish this where true, but protocols aren't products. The normals want polished products. Only weirdos like us on HN care about protocols, or even know they exist for that matter.
For a protocol to matter to a normal person, it has to enable killer features that aren't currently possible.
Unfortunately, for many such communication channels, we are still only in the middle of this step 5, and we have no idea how it ends. E.g. Matrix for chat, ForgeFed for source hosting services, PeerTube for videos, or various other (mostly ActivityPub-based) efforts.