You toss a coin 8 times and are told you get 8 heads, you wanted tails, the person reporting this to you wanted heads on each occasion. By occam's razor is 8 heads a simpler explanation than you were lied to?
One toss, you couldn't really detect much smell. But 8? Does it stink?
Any one of these things, camera footage x2, cell mate, suicide watch removal, plea deal, guards asleep x2, association with the current president, Bill Clinton, actual royalty, just for starters... and we can keep going with these coincidences.
Any one, fine, happens. Any three, ok, weird, but not totally outside expectation. But we're kind of beyond that. It just stinks. If it's all just a massive coincidence that all these independent things "just happened" that needs support because it seems the assumption that all those events are independent is shaky, at best. Shaky by occam's razor heuristic.
0.9^8 is less than 50%
So it should be looked at closely on principle. With or without support from occam's razor.
