The authors of that paper are not nearly as convinced in overall applicable recession predictability using their proxy measures as the abstract excerpt that lures the reader in:
"These results suggest that financial cycle proxies may be another indicator that could be useful to policymakers, professional forecasters and market participants more generally."
Emphasis added is mine. That's double the coverage of uncertainty propogation.
Unfortunately, I suspect, like most working in modern research and academic settings, papers have to inflate success as much as possible or the researchers lose future funding even though this type of work is high risk of failure. This is partly to blame for the reproducibility crisis we're encountering across the board.
I don't blame the authors (I feel their pain), but I do blame the poorly structured incentive/disincentive system creeping ever-further into academic research.
"These results suggest that financial cycle proxies may be another indicator that could be useful to policymakers, professional forecasters and market participants more generally."
Emphasis added is mine. That's double the coverage of uncertainty propogation.
Unfortunately, I suspect, like most working in modern research and academic settings, papers have to inflate success as much as possible or the researchers lose future funding even though this type of work is high risk of failure. This is partly to blame for the reproducibility crisis we're encountering across the board.
I don't blame the authors (I feel their pain), but I do blame the poorly structured incentive/disincentive system creeping ever-further into academic research.