Prediction: it'll start with the gov't allowing safe harbor for sites that use these IDs, when questions regarding copyright, pr0n, etc., come up.
If your users post copyrighted material, e.g., then you'll be offered safe harbor only if you enforce registration via the national ID. Same deal for people posting "naughty" content -- which is more insidious than it sounds, because of the overlap between (a) sexual content and privacy concerns in discussions about, e.g., STDs; or (b) in the wake of wikileaks, being hassled about publication of, or support for those publishing, "leaked" data be it from government or from industry.
It's necessary that we provide a way for people to maintain anonymity, but the government wants to offer enough carrots to divert our horse from that path.
If your users post copyrighted material, e.g., then you'll be offered safe harbor only if you enforce registration via the national ID. Same deal for people posting "naughty" content -- which is more insidious than it sounds, because of the overlap between (a) sexual content and privacy concerns in discussions about, e.g., STDs; or (b) in the wake of wikileaks, being hassled about publication of, or support for those publishing, "leaked" data be it from government or from industry.
It's necessary that we provide a way for people to maintain anonymity, but the government wants to offer enough carrots to divert our horse from that path.