In conjunction with the trade wars and increasingly hostile posturing between leaders, I'm nervous that the ultimate consequence may be war between super powers.
If raising the number of trading partners decreases the likelihood of war, decreasing may increase it's chance instead.
There's been no change in number of trading partners as a result of the trade war.
Also worth noting that the claim is more trading partners lowers likelihood of war. War can still happen.
At some point, economic interdependence cannot save a situation where two sides desperately want to change/preserve the state of something (about the world) and those desires come into conflict.
IMO, with US-China, the best inoculation against war would be to push for multilateral engagement... in either direction. But speaking from the US side, US needs to bring other countries into the efforts to reform the aspects of the CCP's behavior that are unacceptable long term.
The EU is acting after what has come to light in New Zealand, Australia, and Africa. Unfortunately it appears they are acting separately because we are such great friends these days /s .
A lot of people only familiar with the surface link this to the trade war and Huawei, but those are largely reactions to the scope and reach of China's propaganda, control, and soft-power efforts that have been coming to light over the past few years.
Ultimately I believe these are all symptoms caused by a fundamental incompatibility between China's "communist", fascist government and the liberal democracies of the world. Unless that can be reconciled, which I don't believe it really can, everything else is just managing for time.
If raising the number of trading partners decreases the likelihood of war, decreasing may increase it's chance instead.
https://phys.org/news/2015-12-partners-wars-nations.html