That is an interesting post. I think there are two other potential ways FPGA tools could become open source:
1) If there are some widely used open hardware devices or open standards. The fact that FPGAs are proprietary designs and can't be copied is a significant barrier. If there was an analogue of ARM in the FPGA world that could open up open source dev tools too.
2) DIY FPGA. This one is almost certainly much further down the road than any of the other options. But if fab and design tools of the chips themselves become a commodity then there will be open source dev tools. It used to be pretty difficult to make a custom PCB, but now with PCB as a service open tools are seeing more use. I think the reason this is so far down the line is because fpga offers cutting edge performance for specialized applications. If you wait several generations or are ok with reduced performance then you can stick with generic CPU/GPU. With Moore's law running down there may be more and more things that aren't possible without fpga. And I don't think it would be until then that open source dev tools follow more diy fpga.
1) If there are some widely used open hardware devices or open standards. The fact that FPGAs are proprietary designs and can't be copied is a significant barrier. If there was an analogue of ARM in the FPGA world that could open up open source dev tools too.
2) DIY FPGA. This one is almost certainly much further down the road than any of the other options. But if fab and design tools of the chips themselves become a commodity then there will be open source dev tools. It used to be pretty difficult to make a custom PCB, but now with PCB as a service open tools are seeing more use. I think the reason this is so far down the line is because fpga offers cutting edge performance for specialized applications. If you wait several generations or are ok with reduced performance then you can stick with generic CPU/GPU. With Moore's law running down there may be more and more things that aren't possible without fpga. And I don't think it would be until then that open source dev tools follow more diy fpga.