This honestly strikes me as getting close to doable. For Amazon to do next-day and same-day shipping with reasonable efficiency, they clearly have gotten good at this on a statistical basis, as the stuff needs to be in the warehouse in advance of shipping.
A plausible next step to me is something like the Amazon Corner Store, where they have neighborhood caches of goods. I go to order something and they say, "Hey, we figured you might want that, so it's just down the street if you want to pick it up now, or we'll drop it off later today." Or once self-driving improves a little more, maybe a mobile truck-sized warehouse with delivery bots, so they get delivery times down to 10 minutes or so.
And for the future, they have huge historical baselines for a lot of customers; I've been using them for more than 20 years. Most of the day their software sits in my pocket, so it wouldn't be hard for them to start collecting the sort of sensor data that gives them a very good idea of my activities and metabolic stats. It seems entirely believable to me that they could know that, for example, colds are going around, that sensor data indicates I'm going to feel the symptoms soon, and to dispatch a delivery robot with a package of tissues, OJ, and Nyquil.
Amazon does something similar now -- if they see you're following a repeating pattern (say, ordering detergent the first day of every month, or you buy the newest installation of an annual video game on release day), they'll prep loading the product onto their delivery trucks in anticipation of a last-minute order.
Argos here in the UK basically do that now, they have loads of physical locations and will do same-day delivery even if the item is out of stock at your nearest branch.
"Amazon has filed a patent for a shipping system designed to cut delivery times by predicting what buyers are going to buy before they buy it — and shipping products in their general direction, or even right to their door, before the sales click even (or ever) falls."
Realistically they were looking at items added to your cart but not yet purchased, and moving them to a closer distribution center in case you purchased.
Amazon has been getting people to sign up to have their homes, cars, garages etc. open to delivery people for stuff that they've ordered. I figure it's only a matter of time before they start warehousing stuff you haven't ordered there. Maybe you can just wander out to your car and browse, scan whatever looks good with your phone and take it. (Hopefully kidding but I guess you never know what people will trade for "convenience".)
John Deere already does that for common parts. They put a shelf in the farmer's shed with oil, filters, belts... and the farmer takes out what is needed. Once a week the dealer comes by and refills whatever is missing, and once a month sends a bill. No need for any of the scanning as you take it out: you are the only one with access to the cabinet so if it is missing you bought it.
TIL, thats pretty cool and makes a lot of sense. I used to work at a mine and we'd break expensive parts all the time, the supplier would have to ship them in from halfway across the world. They should really do something like that.
The analytics are there. There's that classic article from some years back about a Target knowing that a woman was pregnant before her dad did because they were sending coupons for items related to pregnancy. The issue is now making a goo d product out of the service that people want.
I've assumed that's been coming for a while—Amazon ships you something they think you'll want, and you ship it back if you don't. There are probably legal hurdles, but.
Starting with the fact that, in the U. S. at least, if you didn't order it, you get to keep it. IANAL, but that could probably be signed away in the agreement or something.
I think there are ways around it. I get a book every year from Cooks Illustrated, and I don't ask for it, but about a month before they send it, they send me a letter telling me "we're going to send you this book unless you respond back to this letter". Which is really scummy, but I do want the book, so I let them.
I hope you didn't pay them for it. Telling me up front you're going to send something, while expecting payment, unless action is taken on my part does not absolve them of letting you keep the item free of charge.
Put another way, shit shows up in my mailbox for which I took zero action? Mine now.
