Whatever the probability is, it must be priced so as to prevent arbitrage.

Well I know for a fact that Ann Coulter is on very good terms with several HuffPo dems, yet they appear bitter rivals on tv. Its definitely plausible Taleb, Silver & Pinker are drinking buddies who hatched up this elaborate charade to hawk stat books. Statistics is an extremely dry subject & nobody including the doctorate students are particularly excited about, so props to this triad for engaging in these antics.

Pretty low.

Possible... but I don't think so. I believe the hatred is pretty visceral. For one Taleb is/was pro-Trump, Silver definitely not. Taleb, despite being a professor/author/elite in his own way is pretty anti-elitist in rhetoric, again very different from Silver. Personality-wise, Taleb is pretty abrasive and has very few 'friends' in the public sphere that I know of, despite the high profile of his work--this is regardless if you think he is right or wrong.

He's good friends with Stephen Wolfram. Take that any way you like.

A new kind of friendship.

underrated comment

I know that this is probably exactly what you mean, but Wolfram doesn't have the best reputation for humility himself.

I am not so sure about this. When you read his books or look at his Twitter feed you surely get the impression he is a self-obsessed, extremely arrogant weirdo. But when he gives e.g. a talk in person, he comes across very differently - self-reflective, engaging, emphatic and funny. As someone else has mentioned in this thread, there are really two Talebs out there...

Maybe not a lot of friends among his professional peers, but that wouldn't narrow his circle much.

Not sure they're friends, but he seems to have a good rapport with Russ Roberts (of Econtalk).