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Our judgment is always clouded by survivorship bias, the emergence of self help social media, has only magnified it. Its one of the the main point in books by Nassim Taleb. One of the strategies he suggests is to to pursue a dual strategy where you invest 20 - 30 % of resources ( effort, time or money) in High Risk - High Reward strategy while keeping rest 70 - 80% in low risk.

Personally I pay a lot of attention to stories on HN when they mention failure (complete and not just cosmetic how we failed and then won type stories).



The problem with this strategy is that it is impossible to engage in a high-risk/high-reward strategy like entrepreneurship where your effort has to be 100% committed to the business, especially in the first couple years and especially if you are venture backed.

There are a couple solutions to this:

1) Invest more of your wages in low risk investments to offset the monetary risk of a startup.

2) Work full-time or as a contractor whilst also working 20% of the time on your own startup to try to gain traction which would lower the risk. Though if that succeeds, you should be then reinvesting your time in another startup. It's a vicious cycle :)




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