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See my response above. The buyers of these vehicles are going to be the networks themselves, which will eliminate most if not all car brands.

The car brands know it, which is why they're panicking.

(Why ALL car brands? Because you're going to have companies like Bosch and Foxconn competing. I'd like to see Ford beat Foxconn at a challenge like this.)



Maybe, maybe not. Cars are Americans' most expensive status good. We might end up in a PRT-ish world, where transport is practically a utility, in which case you'd be right. But it's also plausible that people will continue to pay for social cachet and self-image enhancement.

This would be especially true if people continue to own or lease private cars, which I'm sure will continue at some level for decades at least. Look at how much stuff families keep in their minivans, for example. Or all the tradespeople who keep working materials in their trunk.

Or look at commuters. Taxi-ish providers like Uber and Lyft will have a hard time dealing with commutes because they'll have to buy a lot of vehicles to cover the peak that just won't get used much during the off hours. If people treat it like a minibus, where they share, then the providers might do well. But I suspect a lot of people will be willing to pay up for a private commute, at which point they might as well just have a dedicated car. In which case, the market will look a lot more like it does now.




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