Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

> The real story is the one no one has been talking about. The US has been the world's largest economy for the past 100-150 years. In another ~10 years, that will no longer be the case. Every year that passes afterwards, the US is going to fall further and further behind China, until it eventually gets lapped some time in the mid-21st century. It's going to be "interesting" to see what happens then.

With competent governance, max size of the economy is linearly tied to population, with some wiggle room for natural resources.

This is why Japan was always going to level off, and why China is going to be on top.



> max size of the economy is linearly tied to population

> why China is going to be on top

India will have a larger population than China (http://statisticstimes.com/population/china-vs-india-populat...) so it should end up on top.


OP did use this disclaimer:

> competent governance

India is far from competent in this regard.


True.


>until it eventually gets lapped some time in the mid-21st century

What does this mean exactly? Getting lapped means getting passed and then passed again. How does that make sense in this context?


It becomes double the size.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: