This is a great question, but I'm not sure "kill" is the right way to look at it. The better question might be, what makes it less relevant? I have a hard time believing that Facebook will ever "die." A lot of websites that were once hot and the leaders in their categories are pushed to the side as a somewhat tangential/very similar product is introduced. I'm thinking Yahoo and Myspace as two examples.
Both Yahoo and MySpace are still around (and still very relevant for some), but have shifted as Google and Facebook respectively have come in. They've become less relevant in what we think as their core competencies - Yahoo for search (though their drive to be a portal might have done them in) and Myspace for social networking. What is interesting is how both of these companies have evolved into I would say more niche specialties. Yahoo has great finance and fantasy football tools. MySpace is now the place for music/bands to post their work (The first and probably only time I went to MySpace this year was when I stumbled on a link to the very popular TV show Glee tryouts (a friend was trying out I was supposed to vote for) on MySpace. It got me thinking, why wouldn't they do this on Facebook, soon recognizing that Facebook couldn't support the type of functionality required for the contest. Could that be potentially something Facebook will suffer for in the future? Probably not that one example, but maybe a suite of features.
I guess my point here is that I doubt Facebook will ever "die." The only time that I could see it dying (nice post TomOfTTB) is as it's a complete generational shift where our generation's kids (I'm 23) use some wildly new disruptive technology that's more relevant for the time. My guess is, though, our generation will be using Facebook for many many years to come.
I will be interested if and how it evolves like MySpace/Yahoo. Will it end up niching itself? I took an informal survey of friends who talked about using Facebook explicitly for "what's going on with my friends" (aka stalk their facebook albums and walls to get up to date on what's going on) as opposed to Twitter which is (for me and some of my friends at least) much more about "what's going on in the world? what articles did these cool people I respect find?" Pictures on Facebook are done very well and I could see that being a future niche.
It's a fascinating time to be involved in the internet as it's still to young almost to have "history" or "throwbacks" (some might disagree, I know). I would guess that the "movements" TomOfTTB refers to will be happening throughout the history of the internet. To give an metaphor with the auto industry, it might be like the revival of the VW Beatle/Bug cars (popular in the 60s) get revived 40 years later. It might be that a website like MySpace (or even Facebook someday) goes out of style one decade, but then somehow comes back. It sure will be an interesting ride whatever happens!
Both Yahoo and MySpace are still around (and still very relevant for some), but have shifted as Google and Facebook respectively have come in. They've become less relevant in what we think as their core competencies - Yahoo for search (though their drive to be a portal might have done them in) and Myspace for social networking. What is interesting is how both of these companies have evolved into I would say more niche specialties. Yahoo has great finance and fantasy football tools. MySpace is now the place for music/bands to post their work (The first and probably only time I went to MySpace this year was when I stumbled on a link to the very popular TV show Glee tryouts (a friend was trying out I was supposed to vote for) on MySpace. It got me thinking, why wouldn't they do this on Facebook, soon recognizing that Facebook couldn't support the type of functionality required for the contest. Could that be potentially something Facebook will suffer for in the future? Probably not that one example, but maybe a suite of features.
I guess my point here is that I doubt Facebook will ever "die." The only time that I could see it dying (nice post TomOfTTB) is as it's a complete generational shift where our generation's kids (I'm 23) use some wildly new disruptive technology that's more relevant for the time. My guess is, though, our generation will be using Facebook for many many years to come.
I will be interested if and how it evolves like MySpace/Yahoo. Will it end up niching itself? I took an informal survey of friends who talked about using Facebook explicitly for "what's going on with my friends" (aka stalk their facebook albums and walls to get up to date on what's going on) as opposed to Twitter which is (for me and some of my friends at least) much more about "what's going on in the world? what articles did these cool people I respect find?" Pictures on Facebook are done very well and I could see that being a future niche.
It's a fascinating time to be involved in the internet as it's still to young almost to have "history" or "throwbacks" (some might disagree, I know). I would guess that the "movements" TomOfTTB refers to will be happening throughout the history of the internet. To give an metaphor with the auto industry, it might be like the revival of the VW Beatle/Bug cars (popular in the 60s) get revived 40 years later. It might be that a website like MySpace (or even Facebook someday) goes out of style one decade, but then somehow comes back. It sure will be an interesting ride whatever happens!