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A very similar article by many of the same authors was reported in JAMA in Dec 2016.

From JAMA Arch Int Med article from today, p. E6: "...At the same time, 74% of the variation was explained by behavioral and metabolic risk factors alone, while one marginally more variation was explained by socioeconomic and race/ethnicity factors, behavioral and metabolic risk factors, and health care factors combined."

From the WaPo article: "Mokdad said countries such as Australia are far ahead of the United States in delivering preventive care and trying to curb such harmful behaviors as smoking. “Smoking, physical inactivity, obesity, high blood pressure — these are preventable risk factors,” Mokdad said."

In NYC, and not just Manhattan, New Yorkers are doing better because of a number of interventions initiated in 2001, when Mayor Bloomberg and Dr. Tom Frieden took over as Mayor and Health Commissioner.

Adult smoking is 14% in NYC, 24% in Louisiana. Raising the cost of tobacco contributes more than half the effect of getting smokers to quit and to stop teens from ever starting.

NYS tobacco tax is $4.35 per pack and the city is an additional $1.50. Cigarette sell for at least $12 per pack here.

The tax is $1.08 in Louisiana.

Mokdad mentions Australia, where the tobacco tax is $14 per pack plus an additional $2 sales tax.

The ACA made a huge mistake in not raising the about $1 US Federal tax to a much higher number for the 13 billion packs smoked each year.

Raising the Federal tax by $4 would raise at least $30 billion each year for helping those with high risk preexisting conditions.



"Mokdad mentions Australia, where the tobacco tax is $14 per pack plus an additional $2 sales tax."

There is something else going on as well. The young (Australians) don't see smoking as ^cool^. In fact the path to smoking is the path to being a social pariah. You can't smoke in pubs, clubs, taxis, trains, trams, in or around public buildings.

The Australian curse is alcohol and drugs.


> Raising the cost of tobacco contributes more than half the effect of getting smokers to quit and to stop teens from ever starting.

Yes, though it's also created a thriving black market for cigarettes, often trafficked from other states or otherwise sold without paying end-consumer taxes[0].

Separately, it's worth noting that the age for purchasing tobacco in NYC is 21, as opposed to 18 in most other places.

Furthermore, it's also just really damn hard to smoke in NYC. It's been banned in restaurants and bars for fifteen years, long before that was commonplace in other places. More and more buildings are smoke-free, which makes it less and less convenient for people to maintain a smoking habit.

[0] The cost of having an illegal market isn't always monetary. For example, Eric Garner was killed after an encounter in which police approached him because they claimed he was selling untaxed cigarettes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Eric_Garner


21 in CA as well as of March 2016 http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2016/05/05/47687267...

I didn't notice until very recently when I saw a sign on a cash register (I don't smoke). Good for us. It's also very hard to smoke here, many places have lots of rules about where you can do it (not indoors, really far from doors, etc). I'm kind of surprised that people still bother.

That said, when riding a bike around, it's very apparent that many people smoke weed in their cars now. You can smell it for about a block or two behind their vehicle.


No kidding! I was just thinking about this last night on my 34 mi bike ride in the rural bits surrounding Athens, Georgia. It seems like every third car that passes me emits the scent of weed in some way.


> "it's also just really damn hard to smoke in NYC."

Yes, it is :-)

Also banned in the parks. The age increase to 21 is a relatively recent change, the adult rate had been 14% and the teen rate 7% prior to that change.

Taxes, banning smoking in public places, hard-hitting anti-smoking ads spending $1 to $2 per capita are the main reasons for decline, all policy. Clinical intervention is also important, but have less effect than the policy.


I find it much easier to smoke here than when I lived in Seattle, where everything is smoke free there; vape culture is also much bigger on the West coast. I actually haven't noticed being in a smoke free apartment in NYC, yet.

But certainly right about the black market. Go to any bodega enough for them to remember your face and you'll get the under the counter 7-8 dollar packs imported from Virginia.




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